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ngoing conflict within the Yogakarta royal family risks triggering a rise in intolerance in the province, according to observer of politics and Islam Noorhaidi Hasan of the Yogyakarta Sunan Kalijaga State Islamic University (UIN).

Speaking at a discussion forum on the dynamics and challenges of plurality in Yogyakarta held at the provincial office of the Religious Affairs Ministry on Monday, Noorhaidi said that internecine warfare among the political elite could see the latter'€™s interests converge with those of vigilante and militant groups.

'€œThe situation in Yogyakarta could become more problematic as the Palace conflict grows following the issuance of the sabda raja and dawuh dalem,'€ he told the forum, which was jointly organized by the Yogyakarta Interfaith Forum (FKUB), Dian Interfidei and the Alliance of Independent Journalists (AJI).

Last year, Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono (HB) X issued a sabda raja (royal statement) and dawuh dalem (royal order) naming his eldest daughter Gusti Kanjeng Ratu (GKR) Mangkubumi as his heir.

According to Law No. 13/2012 on Yogyakarta'€™s special status, the reigning sultan is also Yogakarta governor.

The move, however, met protest from the potentate'€™s brothers, who cited the long-standing tradition of appointing male heirs; the royal family has been in conflict since.

Vigilante and militant groups, Noorhaidi warned, could emerge and become stronger while the political elite was in a state of turmoil. In such a situation, he said, the political elite needed support, which unsavory groups could provide or mobilize, in return for support for their own expansion.

Noorhaidi, who is also director of UIN Sunan Kalijaga'€™s postgraduate program, noted that as discourse on Yogyakarta'€™s status increased and calls for power-sharing grew, militant and vigilante groups were similarly expanding.

Yogyakarta, he said, had been home to militant groups since 2000. Among those with headquarters in the province include the Indonesian Mujahidin Council (MMI) and Laskar Jihad.

Other groups have also emerged in recent years, conducting active raids against perceived immorality; they include the Anti-Immorality Movement (GAM), Islamic Jihad Front (FJI) and Indonesian Islamic Front (FUI).

'€œMy research suggests that the reason such groups thrive in Yogyakarta is linked to the populace'€™s openness, its reluctance to reject anything, even radicalism,'€ Noorhaidi said.

Yogyakarta, long known for its tolerance, has in recent years seen a drastic reversal. The Wahid Institute in 2014 ranked Yogyakarta as the second-least tolerant province in Indonesia, and the province last year saw 12 recorded cases of intolerance.

Separately, Yogyakarta Unity and Community Protection Agency (Kesbanglimas) head Agung Supriyono noted the difficulty of maintaining plurality among Yogyakarta'€™s various ethnicities.

Although cases of intolerance were relatively high, he added, no large-scale social conflict had ever erupted in the province. '€œWhen conflict does occur, all parties are able to deal with it quickly,'€ he said.

The vigilante group most frequently recorded by The Jakarta Post committing intolerant acts is the FUI, a group against which no legal action has ever been taken. Members of the FUI, indeed, are permitted by authorities to participate in the management of the bus terminal in Ngaben and in offering services to take tourists from Ngaben to the Yogyakarta Palace or the city center.