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What’s wrong with oil and gas exploration in Indonesia?
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Workers erect a drill rig to bore one of six wells in the Jembaran Tiung Biru (JTB) gas field in the Cepu Block, East Java on October (10/10). The field's operator, Pertamina EP Cepu, expects to the field to begin commerical operation in July 2021. (Pertamina/Pertamina)
I
n the near future, oil and gas discourse will remain focused on declining national production and a declining passion for exploration that is increasingly alarming.
Recently, at the joint convention of oil and gas-related associations — IAGI, HAGI, IATMI and IAFMI — in Yogyakarta, Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Special Task Force (SKKMigas) head Dwi Soetjipto unveiled his pledge to help national oil production climb back to 1 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) by 2030. The target is based on the fact that the country has 128 potential oil and gas basins but only 54 have been explored.
The SKKMigas head said, frankly, that he took the target for granted because it had been passed on from the outgoing SKKMigas head to the successor for nearly the last 10 years. The fact is, national production has continued to decline to the current level of around 750,000 bopd.
I was one of the speakers invited to the event, along with Professor Sudjati Rahmat of the Department of Petroleum Engineering at the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB). He forecasted that in 2030, the total oil lifting would reach only 677,000 bopd, with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) contributing approximately 37 percent, or equal committed oil production that could drop as low as 250,000 bopd. The remaining 26 percent or 167,000 bopd would come from successful exploration.
Based on his simulation, peak production would come in 2036 with around 800,000 bopd.
Only 18 of the 54 explored basins produce hydrocarbons. The producing basins have 478 fields with 93 percent (about 400 fields) highly depleted and less than 7 percent undepleted.
Altogether, less than 50 percent of the production comes from primary recovery (natural and artificial lift, recovery factor less than 30 percent), 29.5 percent secondary (water flooding, pressure maintenance, 30 to 50 percent) and 21 percent tertiary (EOR: thermal, 50 to 80+ percent, yet no proven chemical, CO2 and acoustic or microbial).
