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Can Vietnam rise to leadership challenge?
As disruptions and uncertainties become a new norm, a “cohesive and responsive ASEAN” is a timely and relevant theme for Vietnam’s ASEAN chairmanship this year. It singles out “cohesiveness” as the most important element for ASEAN to deal with the many problems facing the region.
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Vietnam leads: Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha (left) hands over the gavel for ASEAN chairmanship to Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc during the closing ceremony of the 35th ASEAN Summit in Bangkok on Nov. 4, 2019. (AFP/Lillian Suwanrumpha)
T
he State of Southeast Asia 2020 Survey, conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore from Nov. 12 to Dec. 1, 2019, unveils both continuity and nuanced change in how regional policymakers and opinion leaders perceive the problems facing the region and whether they are confident in ASEAN’s ability to rise to today’s challenges.
The survey report canvassed the views of 1,308 Southeast Asians hailing from the region’s governments, research institutions, business sector, civil society and media. It sought to understand Southeast Asian perceptions on regional affairs and engagements with the major powers.
According to the survey, domestic political instability, including ethnic and religious tensions, continues to be the region’s paramount challenge, being identified by 70.5 percent of respondents. This is a persistent reminder that nation-building in Southeast Asia is far from complete, and remains a major preoccupation in the region’s mindshare.
The past year also saw upheavals in the region’s economic fortunes due to disruptions and uncertainties from the United States-China trade war and shrinking global trade. The Asian Development Bank adjusted its ASEAN growth forecast down from 4.9 percent to 4.5 percent for 2019 and from 5 percent to 4.7 percent for 2020. Mirroring this reality, economic downturn (68.5 percent) overtook climate change (66.8 percent) as the second biggest concern of respondents in the survey.
At the country-level, the survey findings reflect quite accurately respondents’ prevailing perceptions regarding their country-specific conditions. For Brunei, the top concern remains economic downturn while the South China Sea tensions continue to be the biggest security challenge for the Philippines and Vietnam.
Domestic political instability is the paramount concern for Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore and Thailand.
Except for Singapore, which has had low short-term political risks, the other five ASEAN states have faced political uncertainty and even turbulence during the past year. Singapore respondents were probably looking outward to their neighborhood in identifying domestic political instability as the prevailing region-wide concern. As they look inward, economic anxiety looms large as the second biggest concern since Singapore’s economy has been hit hard by the trade war.
