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Holidays sustain consumer spending post-Ramadan
Data from the Mandiri Spending Index show that middle- and upper-class consumers drove spending growth during both the Ramadan-Idul Fitri holiday and postholiday periods this year, albeit not as much as compared to last year.
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People mill around on June 10, 2025, in a decorated concourse of a shopping mall in Semanggi, South Jakarta. (Antara/Luthfia Miranda Putri)
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amadan and Idul Fitri have passed, and consumer spending during this year’s Muslim holiday season was quite good, although not as high as in 2024. Overall, this trend is reflected in the household consumption component of GDP for the first quarter of 2025, which grew 4.89 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the 4.91 percent growth recorded in 2024. We conclude that the general mood during Ramadan-Idul Fitri 2025 was more cautious.
After the festive period, consumer spending usually enters a normalization phase characterized by a slowdown. Using data from the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI), this pattern occurs repeatedly and consistently. In 2023 and 2024, the average decline in spending during the normalization phase compared to the holiday peak was around 8.67 percent.
The same happened this year, with average spending declining after the holiday peak around 7.34 percent.
Impact on consumer spending
Based on our observation, the normalization period in 2025 was not as deep as in previous years. What made the difference were the holidays and collective leave days after the festive season in 2025.
Historically, holidays and collective leave days have been key drivers of increased consumer spending. MSI data shows that spending during holiday periods increased 14.4 percent on average compared to normal (non-holiday) periods. While the impact varies depending on holiday characteristics, such as timing and length, some patterns stand out.
Generally, consumer spending increases significantly during holidays that fall at the beginning or the end of the month, compared to holidays in the middle of the month. Holidays at the beginning or the end of the month lead to an 11.5 percent increase in spending, while mid-month holidays result in only a 2.6 percent increase.
