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Asia markets stumble as hot PPI print reins in Fed rate cut hype

Gregor Stuart Hunter (Reuters)
Singapore
Fri, August 15, 2025 Published on Aug. 15, 2025 Published on 2025-08-15T09:30:06+07:00

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A woman walks past a screen displaying Japan's Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo on July 8, 2025. A woman walks past a screen displaying Japan's Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo on July 8, 2025. (Reuters/Issei Kato)

S

tocks in Asia made an uneven recovery as higher-than-expected producer price inflation dampened expectations of a jumbo rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, while US bonds and equity futures stabilized.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3 percent after a report on Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which showed the Producer Price Index increased 0.9 percent in July on a month-over-month basis, well above economists' expectations.

"What it did was to get rid of all the chat about a 50-basis-point cut," said Mike Houlahan, director at Electus Financial Ltd in Auckland.

The market is currently pricing in a 92.1 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at its September meeting, compared with a 100-percent likelihood of a cut on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The chance of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut fell to 0 percent from an earlier expectation of 5.7 percent a day ago.

US stock futures were flat in early Asian trading after ending a choppy trading session on Wall Street with mild gains on Thursday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was down 1 basis point at 4.2829 percent.

The two-year yield, which is sensitive to traders' expectations of Fed fund rates, slipped to 3.7304 percent compared with a US close of 3.739 percent. Nasdaq futures extended losses into a third consecutive day, sliding 0.1 percent lower.

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The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, retraced some gains after the PPI data release, last trading down 0.1 percent at 98.143.

The Nikkei N225 rebounded 0.4 percent after snapping a six-day winning streak on Thursday with its biggest one-day selloff since April 11, as Japanese GDP data showed the economy expanding by an annualized 1 percent in the April-June quarter, beating analyst estimates. The dollar weakened 0.3 percent against the yen to 147.64.

Australian shares were last up 0.2 percent, while stocks in Hong Kong were down 0.9 percent following losses on Thursday for US-listed exchange-traded funds tracking Chinese companies.

The CSI 300 gave up early gains and was last trading flat after the release of weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data for July including retail sales and industrial production. Markets in India and South Korea are closed for public holidays.

Cryptocurrency markets stabilized after a new record for bitcoin of $124,480.82 on Thursday proved fragile and promptly crumbled after falling short of its next key milestone. The digital currency was last up 0.7 percent, recovering some ground, while ether gained 1.7 percent.

"Bitcoin's failure to conquer the $125,000 resistance signals another consolidation phase," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney.

In commodities markets, Brent crude was flat at $66.94 per barrel ahead of a meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Gold was slightly lower as the markets digested the path of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which typically move in the opposite direction from bullion prices. Spot gold was trading up 0.1 percent at $3,339 per ounce.

In early European trades, the pan-region futures were up 0.4 percent, German DAX futures were up 0.3 percent at 24,489, and FTSE futures were up 0.5 percent.

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