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View all search resultsQ4 Consumption snapshot: Signs of a steady recovery
Based on Mandiri Spending Index (MSI) data, average weekly spending growth in Q4 reached 37.8 percent year-on-year (yoy), higher than the 29.3 percent in Q3.
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Travelers stroll through Terminal 3 of Soekarno-Hatta International
Airport on March 21, 2024, in Tangerang, Banten. (Antara/Muhammad Iqbal)
A
fter going through a relatively “tough” period in the first three quarters of 2025, household consumption has started to show fairly consistent signs of rebound up to around two-thirds of the fourth quarter. This recovery is reflected in a week-by-week strengthening of spending activity.
Based on Mandiri Spending Index (MSI) data, average weekly spending growth in Q4 reached 37.8 percent year-on-year (yoy), higher than 29.3 percent in Q3. The pickup in spending began as early as late September, earlier than historical patterns. In previous years, the increase ahead of Christmas and New Year usually only started in the second week of November and peaked in December.
In 2025, however, the spending upswing has come earlier, indicating stronger consumer optimism going into year-end. In line with this, consumer confidence has also improved. The consumer confidence index in October 2025 rose by 6.3 points, reversing the decline of 2.4 points in October 2024. This suggests that households’ perception of economic conditions at the end of 2025 is relatively more positive.
The improvement in consumer optimism is driven by at least two key factors.
First, a better labor market. Layoff trends have continued to ease up to the end of Q3. The government’s report suggests that the number of workers affected by layoffs in the quarter was only around 3,000 people and keep decreasing to 1,200 people at November, much lower than 32,000 and 10,000 in Q1 and Q2, respectively. In addition, Google Trends tracking shows that news and searches related to layoffs have declined significantly. The index in Q4 was at 38, down from 57 in Q1.
Second, improving household income inflows. This is closely linked to the better labor market. Internal Bank Mandiri tracking shows an increase in incoming funds to customer accounts, which is used as a proxy for household income. In other words, households are not only feeling more secure about their jobs, but their cash inflows are also improving.
Shifts in the quality and pattern of spending
