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View all search resultsIran war boosts European logistics profits as shipping chaos persists
While airfreight volumes are expected to grow at a high single‑digit rate in the quarter, sea freight volumes are forecast to rise only at a low single‑digit pace year on year.
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Cargo ships and tankers are seen off the coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (AFP/Giuseppe Cacace)
E
uropean logistics companies are expected to report higher first-quarter profits, benefiting from the turmoil created by the US-Israeli war with Iran, but analysts said the conflict clouds their future outlook.
While heightened supply‑chain complexity typically supports profitability for logistics companies such as DHL, DSV and Kuehne+Nagel, many analysts have warned that the longer‑term effects of the energy shock and broader economic fallout could weigh on demand later in the year.
In a note to clients, Jefferies analysts said Kuehne+Nagel's management do not expect further yield pressure in sea or air business in the first quarter. That reinforced their view that earnings have stabilized and are set to improve, the brokerage said.
Jefferies analysts also said periods of geopolitical turmoil have historically promoted sea-to-air spillover, where DHL is structurally advantaged.
While airfreight volumes are expected to grow at a high single‑digit rate in the quarter, sea freight volumes are forecast to rise only at a low single‑digit pace year on year, Bernstein analysts said in a note.
Seafreight volumes have been weighed down by tough comparisons after shippers front‑loaded cargo ahead of US import tariffs in April 2025, they said.
Attention is also turning to DSV's capital markets day on May 12, where analysts are looking for updated medium‑term financial targets. "The potential for upside surprises on the day is meaningful," Bernstein said.
