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Prabowo extends poll lead ahead of presidential election

Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor of Central Java, have dominated surveys prior to elections in Indonesia, the world's third-largest democracy, trailed by former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan.

Reuters
Jakarta
Thu, October 5, 2023

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Prabowo extends poll lead ahead of presidential election Gerindra party chairman Prabowo Subianto (second right) and (from left to right) National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Zulkifli Hasan, Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto, and National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar shake hands as they declare their coalition for the 2024 presidential election at Proclamation Museum on Aug. 13, 2023. (Antara/Galih Pradipta)
Indonesia Decides

Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto topped an opinion poll published on Wednesday, as candidates prepared to register for a presidential race next year that is expected to be close.

Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor of Central Java, have dominated surveys prior to elections in Indonesia, the world's third-largest democracy, trailed by former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan.

Pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) said 34 percent of respondents would vote for Prabowo in a nationwide telephone poll of 1,206 people in September that had a 2.9 percent margin of error.

The shares of those choosing Ganjar and Anies, respectively, were 30.4 percent and 22 percent, while 13 percent did not answer or said they did not know.

In a two-way runoff, Prabowo would win over Ganjar by about 11 points, the pollster's chief, Djayadi Hanan, told a press conference. 

"Prabowo Subianto had an 11.3 percent advantage," he said. "This is quite a significant advantage."

Swing or undecided voters numbered about 40 percent, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, an analyst with pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia, told the conference.

The number of those undecided may reflect the fact that none of the three men has formally registered to be a candidate yet, said Philips J. Vermonte, a political analyst with the Indonesian International Islamic University (UIII). 

All three, and their running mates, are expected to formally register between Oct. 19 and 25. Anies is the only one to have declared a running mate.

About 205 million voters are registered to vote in simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on Feb. 14, the election commission says. 

Prabowo, 71, comes from an elite family and commands a huge following, despite unproven accusations of human rights violations over the kidnapping of democracy activists during economic and political turmoil in the late 1990s.

He has denied wrongdoing.

Prabowo, who lost in consecutive bids to become president in 2014 and 2019, has gained momentum after embarking on a rebranding campaign in which he reached out to young people with a sophisticated social media presence. 

Analysts are watching closely to see who wins the backing of the hugely popular incumbent Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who is not standing himself as he is limited to two five-year terms.

Jokowi has voiced support for Ganjar, a fellow member of his ruling Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

But tension between him and PDI-P chief Megawati Sukarnoputri, along with his more frequent public appearances with Prabowo, have led analysts to suggest he is still weighing his choice.

 

 

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