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Anies could still sway Jakarta race from sidelines, survey finds
The former Jakarta governor may be out of the race, the latest LSI survey indicates that he may still wield some influence among his supporters, who are seen to be up for grabs by leading contenders Ridwan and Pramono.
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Anies Baswedan (center right) gives a thumbs-up on Aug. 4, 2024 as a crowd takes selfies with the former Jakarta governor during Car Free Day on Jl. Sudirman in Jakarta. (Antara/Asprilla Dwi Adha)
Though he may have failed to gain party backing for his reelection bid, Anies Baswedan might still play an influential role in the city’s gubernatorial race come November, an independent pollster says, and that either public endorsement or silence from the former Jakarta governor could affect how voters cast their ballots.
Following his loss in February’s presidential election, Anies decided to run for reelection in the 2024 regional head elections as Jakarta governor, a position he held from 2017 to 2022. But his hopes were dashed when he was unable to secure the backing of any political party for his candidacy, and he lost his chance altogether when he missed the registration deadline for independent candidates.
Jakarta’s gubernatorial election is now a de facto two-horse race between party-backed candidates, former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil and Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung, who are vying to gain favor among the former governor’s supporters, said to make up a large share of the city’s voters.
While Anies might be out of the running, a recent survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) has found that he could still significantly influence the electoral outcome if he endorses either Ridwan or Pramono.
After interviewing 1,200 Jakarta voters from Sept. 6 to 12, the survey results suggest that an endorsement from Anies could boost voter support for Pramono and running mate Rano Karno by just 2 percentage points (pp), but shave off support for the Ridwan-Suswono pair by more than 10 pp.
Meanwhile, Anies’s endorsement for Ridwan-Suswono could boost voter support by 2 pp and pull voters away from Pramono-Rano by 3 pp.
“If Pramono and Rano want to be more competitive by closing the electability gap with [their rivals], they need open endorsement from Anies, which would significantly shrink support for Ridwan and Suswono,” LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan said on Wednesday, during an event in Jakarta to release the survey’s results.
