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n Sept. 27, the world's leading climate scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that nearly half of all the carbon dioxide (CO2) that could be safely emitted without raising temperatures above a perilous 2 degrees Celsius had already been emitted. This means that continuing business could exhaust the remaining 'carbon budget' and break the 2-degree threshold within 30 years.

This situation would inevitably result in continuous extreme weather and food scarcity. In 2010, UN member states agreed to a 2- degree cap on the rise of average global temperatures by 2100 based on pre-industrial levels.

In October, the scientific journal Nature published a study that said in 2047, Earth would pass 'climate departure', which is when the average coolest temperature year is projected to be warmer than the average temperature of the hottest year between 1960 and 2005.

On Nov. 5, the UN Environment Program released its 2013 Emissions Gap Report.  Even if nations met their current climate pledges, carbon emissions in 2020 were likely to be 6-12 gigatons CO2 equivalent above the level needed to remain below 2 degrees by 2020, the report said.

These three stark pronouncements preceded this year's annual climate summit taking place in Warsaw on Nov. 11-22. The Polish capital is hosting the UN climate change conference, officially dubbed the 19th Conference of Parties or COP 19. Warsaw serves to see a draft of a negotiating text for a new global climate accord applicable for all parties. The draft would be finalized in Lima, Peru, at COP 20 in 2014 and would be adopted at COP 21 in Paris, in 2015. It would come into effect in 2020.

The global agreement, traditionally named after the host city where it is adopted, would be legally binding for all nations to reduce carbon emissions. Each government should state how they intend to reduce emissions and set their own target as their national contribution for the common global solution.  

Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, sees three areas for progress in Warsaw. First is putting substance into the Green Climate Fund. Developed nations have pledged US$100 billion annually for it but no significant sum has been kicked in.

Second is loss and damage. More work has to be done on adaptation, the means to minimize climate-change impacts. Third is the ADP. The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) was set up during COP 17 in Durban, South Africa, in December 2011. Its task is to work on an agreed outcome for the post-2020 climate regime. This includes the new global accord that would have legal force applicable to all.  

Figueres said in a speech in Chatham House, London, Oct. 21, that for 'an ambitious and clear draft' in Lima in 2014, parties in Warsaw should clarify the elements that go in the draft  agreement.

For its part, Indonesia has demanded that developed nations keep to their $100 billion pledge. It will also persuade all parties to solidify their commitments to reducing emissions. Indonesia wanted to know what the US had to say (after President Barack Obama announced his climate plan in a speech at Georgetown University on June 25), Rachmat Witoelar, the executive chair of the National Council on Climate Change, told a pre-departure press conference.

The US, in past climate summits, has never been forthcoming with commitments and has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the legally binding agreement for developed countries to reduce emissions. Todd Stern, the US special envoy on climate change, said in London that all nations would be required to play a part, and that countries previously classed as developing would have to take on national commitments on emissions.

'Indonesia remains committed to the CBDR (common but differentiated responsibilities) and the two-degree threshold that is applicable to all. Indonesia does its share with its commitment to its 26 percent emission cut.  We can do more if the funding pledge from the developed nations is forthcoming,' Rachmat, Indonesia's chief delegate in Warsaw, said.

On the government's voluntary initiative to reduce emissions by 26 percent in 2020, the former environment minister said Indonesia was 'on track'. He believes the cut could be higher given the drop in Indonesia's deforestation. An estimated 75 percent of Indonesia's carbon emissions come from outside of fossil-fuel burning. The main source of emissions is from deforestation, land degradation, peatland clearing, illegal logging and agriculture.    

Rachmat said Indonesia would participate in all side events in Warsaw to bring people and investment into the country.

When asked about Indonesia's climate policy post-2014 election, Rachmat said he knew all the presidential candidates and was confident that whoever won the presidency would sustain the present policy.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's climate departure is fast approaching, 2029 for Jakarta and 2020 for Manokwari in West Papua.