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Jakarta Post

Lies and statistics: How polls differ from one another

  • Karina M. Tehusijarana

    The Jakarta Post

PREMIUM
Jakarta   /   Fri, April 5, 2019   /  06:45 pm
The Jakarta Post Image
Indikator Politik executive director Buhanuddin Muhtadi elaborates on the findings of the pollster’s latest survey, which looked at the impact of social media and partisanship on people’s choices for the upcoming presidential election. (The Jakarta Post/Seto Wardhana)

The final stretch of the election campaign season has been marked by a plethora of polls measuring the electability of the two presidential tickets, and the differences between them have raised questions about the reliability of surveys and the objectivity of polling organizations.  Both camps have used the different results to spin a narrative around their candidates. While all major polls put President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo with a double-digit lead over Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto, they have differed in the exact size of the incumbent’s advantage.  A survey released by Kompas on March 18 created a stir by putting Jokowi’s electability rate at 49.2 percent, the lowest among previous major polls that had put him between 52 and 58 percent.  A survey conducted by Jakarta-based pollster Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC...