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Lies and statistics: How polls differ from one another
Critics have raised questions about the reliability of surveys and the objectivity of polling organizations.
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Indikator Politik executive director Buhanuddin Muhtadi elaborates on the findings of the pollster’s latest survey, which looked at the impact of social media and partisanship on people’s choices for the upcoming presidential election. (The Jakarta Post/Seto Wardhana)
T
he final stretch of the election campaign season has been marked by a plethora of polls measuring the electability of the two presidential tickets, and the differences between them have raised questions about the reliability of surveys and the objectivity of polling organizations.
Both camps have used the different results to spin a narrative around their candidates. While all major polls put President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo with a double-digit lead over Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto, they have differed in the exact size of the incumbent’s advantage.
A survey released by Kompas on March 18 created a stir by putting Jokowi’s electability rate at 49.2 percent, the lowest among previous major polls that had put him between 52 and 58 percent.
A survey conducted by Jakarta-based pollster Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) in the same period placed Jokowi at 57.6 percent, while polls that were subsequently released by Charta Politika and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) put him at 53.6 percent and 51.4 percent, respectively.
All four of the surveys had similar sample sizes, polling 1,960 to 2,479 respondents, used the same sampling method (multistage random sampling) and were also conducted around the same period.
The Kompas poll, which also showed the lowest margin between Jokowi and Prabowo with 11.8 percentage points, drew the most vocal reactions from supporters of both camps.
Prabowo and Sandiaga Uno’s campaign team members reveled in the poll results and were quick to take to social media to boast about them.
