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Indonesia air traffic forecast to fully recover in 2026
A latest forecast expects domestic flight traffic to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024 and international traffic by 2026 assuming COVID-19 containment programs go according to plan.
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Plane to see: Planes prepare for take off and land at I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali. The airport will serve 724 extra flights for this year’s holiday season.JP/Zul Trio Anggono (JP/Zul Trio Anggono)
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ndonesia’s domestic and international flight volume is projected to fully recover by 2026, mainly assuming outbreak containment goes as planned, according to a recent key study.
Domestic flight volume is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 while international volumes in 2026, according to the study conducted by Padjadjaran University (UNPAD) and commissioned by the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA).
UNPAD researchers explained on Thursday the projections assumed that Indonesia successfully completed its second phase vaccination program of 38.87 million citizens by March 2022 and that most of Asia, Europe and the United States optimized their vaccination programs by that same year, as per schedule.
“Yes, the vaccine will be a game changer, but so will adopting health protocols and providing good health facilities in the airline industry. These will improve public trust and revive the airline industry,” said lead researcher and UNPAD economic professor Yayan Satyakti on Thursday.
Read also: Tourism recovery still long way off despite slight increase in visitors in May: Experts
The white paper is set to be INACA’s main reference in viewing Indonesia’s airline industry outlook in the post-pandemic years after flights plummeted 64.1 percent year-on-year (yoy) in March 2020 to 470,898 visitors, a level unseen in more than a decade, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data.
Furthermore, the study quantitatively confirms the industry’s long-held belief that Indonesia’s airline industry’s recovery is pegged, above all, on domestic travel and outbreak containment, the latter of which poses the greater challenge.
