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Transportation to lead industry rebound while tourism trails behind: Mandiri
The bank forecasts the country’s gross domestic product to grow by 4.4 percent this year, a slightly less optimistic figure than the government’s prediction of between 4.5 and 5.3 percent.
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An MRT train passes Jl. Sisingamangaraja, South Jakarta, during a trial run on Oct. 23, 2018. (JP/Seto Wardhana)
T
he transportation services and automotive manufacturing industries are poised to lead an industry rebound this year, while tourism is forecast to stay in the negative territory, according to state-owned Bank Mandiri.
The publicly listed second-largest lender by asset value projects that passenger volume will rebound by 64 percent year-on-year for domestic flights, 59.8 percent for international flights and 65 percent for train rides, supported by the implementation of relatively more relaxed public activity restrictions (PPKM).
The lender also forecasts car and motorcycle sales to grow 31 percent to 730,000 units and 4.8 million units, respectively, supported by the introduction of a luxury tax (PPnBM) cut on new car purchases and recovering purchasing powers.
Conversely, foreign arrivals are expected to decline by around one-third this year to 2.7 million visitors as international mobility restrictions continue to hit Indonesia’s tourism, potentially marking a second consecutive year of contraction. Some Asia Pacific countries reimposed lockdown in recent weeks following fresh outbreaks.
“Generally, we are expecting a significant recovery in 2021, but not to a prepandemic or 2019 level,” Dendi Ramdani, the head of industry and regional research at the bank, said in a briefing on May 19.
“It is roughly between 70 and 80 percent of the normal level; meaning it requires more efforts to return to the normal level, which we expect to take place in 2022.”
