TheJakartaPost

Please Update your browser

Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.

Jakarta Post

What next for Afghanistan as Taliban rise again?

To add to its woes, Washington has announced plans to evacuate its nationals in Kabul, a symbolic and shambolic end of the US presence after nearly two decades of conflict.

AFP
Kabul, Afghanistan
Fri, August 13, 2021 Published on Aug. 13, 2021 Published on 2021-08-13T16:01:36+07:00

Change text size

Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone

Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!
 What next for Afghanistan as Taliban rise again? In this picture taken on August 13, 2021, Taliban fighters stand on a vehicle along the roadside in Herat, Afghanistan's third biggest city, after government forces pulled out the day before following weeks of being under siege. (AFP/AFP)

A

fghanistan is on the precipice and the nation's security forces have all but collapsed after being battered by a Taliban offensive they were unable to halt.

To add to its woes, Washington has announced plans to evacuate its nationals in Kabul, a symbolic and shambolic end of the US presence after nearly two decades of conflict.

With the Taliban controlling the vast majority of the country's cities and rural areas, and Afghan security forces largely defeated, here follows some questions and answers that may help explain the current situation:

What's the Taliban's strategy?

The Taliban have never shied away from saying what they want -- the complete resurrection of their Islamic emirate that ruled from 1996 - 2001.

A lot of analysis and head scratching was devoted to how exactly they would achieve their goal -- through talks, brute force, or a mixture of both.

In the end, their military strategy proved sufficient: overwhelm government forces with multi-pronged attacks on targets throughout the country.

To do that they first had to get American boots off the ground -- which they did by securing a deal with war-weary Washington and pledging not to hit US targets in exchange for their withdrawal.

Part of the deal also meant Washington pressuring the Afghan government into releasing thousands of Taliban prisoners -- most of whom immediately rejoined the fray.

With such breathtaking successes in the last eight days the Taliban may now have the confidence to offer the government the chance of unconditional surrender.

If Kabul baulks, expect the Taliban to push for the capital with force.

What happened to the Afghan military?

No doubt books will be published and lectures given for years, if not decades, on this subject -- what exactly went wrong with the Afghan security forces?

Corruption, the lack of a will to fight, and the vacuum created by the US exit likely all played a part in the Afghan military's ultimate demise.

For years, the US government issued reports detailing the vast amounts of corruption within the Afghan security forces.

Commanders routinely pocketed money meant for their troops, sold weapons on the black market, and lied about the number of soldiers in their ranks.

The Afghan forces were also entirely dependent on US air power -- from logistics to strikes, along with maintenance.

And to make matters all the worse, the security forces never had much in the way of effective leadership.

They were micromanaged by civilians in the presidential palace with little military experience, or ignored by ageing generals who appeared more involved in petty political fights than the larger war at hand.

The US-trained commando units were the hope, but in the end they were not enough to shoulder the entire fight.

 How does it end?

The Taliban have the upper hand across the board.

The government now controls just three major cities, and is unlikely to have the logistical manpower left to marshal a successful defence of the capital. 

The Taliban are moving rapidly towards Kabul with reports suggesting their fighters are making progress on the northern and southern flanks of the capital.

The US and international community are most likely piling pressure on the Taliban and Afghan government to reach some kind of deal.

But the Taliban ultimately hold all the cards. 

Your Opinion Matters

Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.

Enter at least 30 characters
0 / 30

Thank You

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.

Share options

Quickly share this news with your network—keep everyone informed with just a single click!

Change text size options

Customize your reading experience by adjusting the text size to small, medium, or large—find what’s most comfortable for you.

Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone

Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!

Continue in the app

Get the best experience—faster access, exclusive features, and a seamless way to stay updated.