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2030s to mark turning point for Indonesian coal exports: Experts
The change is expected to be driven by China and India's promised transitions to cleaner energy.
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The Tutupan coal mine in Balangan district, South Kalimantan, is pictured on March 24, 2011. The mine, owned by PT Adaro Indonesia, has the largest reserves of the three Adaro mining blocks and began operating in 1997. (JP/R. Berto Wedhatama)
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n energy researcher and a coal association chair have predicted that the country’s coal exports will start to decline in the 2030s, largely because the commodity’s biggest buyers, China and India, plan to undergo major transitions to cleaner energy.
Fabby Tumiwa, executive director at energy research nonprofit Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), said during an online discussion on Aug. 26 that the two countries’ recently announced energy transition plans would “clearly reduce coal imports from Indonesia”.
Over 80 percent of Indonesia’s 625 million tons of planned coal production is to be sold to overseas markets, mainly China and India, according to Fabby.
He pointed out that Japan and South Korea, other major buyers of Indonesian coal, were on similar paths toward renewable energy.
The predictions come after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced in September of last year that China would achieve peak carbon emissions "before 2030" and carbon neutrality by 2060, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed last year that India would install 450 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy power plants by 2030.
Read also: UN chief urges leaders of every country to declare 'climate emergency
China and India’s energy transition plans carry repercussions for Indonesia, second only to Australia in coal exports. Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, greatly contributes to Indonesia’s trade surplus.
