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Indonesia must guide ASEAN amid China-US conflict
The credibility of ASEAN rests on its complete understanding of the China-United States conflict.
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Center stage: United States President Joe Biden (center) takes part in the ASEAN-US Summit on the sidelines of the 2021 ASEAN summits held online in Bandar Seri Begawan on Oct. 26, 2021. (AFP/Handout/ASEAN Summit 2021)
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SEAN is in a state of strategic shift. When the chair of ASEAN, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, chose to meet Senior General Ming Aung Hlaing at will and beyond reproach, the carefully designed ASEAN Leaders Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and other ASEAN-related summits have been removed off guardrails.
But the credibility of ASEAN rests on its complete understanding of the China-United States conflict. A framework of 10 Ts may suffice for now while ASEAN tries to bring Hun Sen to yield.
First is Taiwan conflict. Taiwan will be the first island chain that will extend from the Philippines and Timor Leste to prevent China's largest naval fleet in the world, concurrent with its fishing militia of 17,000 vessels, from going into the Pacific Ocean as and when it wishes.
Second, technological competition over quantum computing and cybersecurity that will lead to China having a complete handle on disinformation or misinformation warfare in the event that the US may feel it is losing Southeast Asia, the world's fourth-largest economy.
Third, the Tiananmen-like issues that involve a sharp conflict over the fate of Uyghurs, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz in Xinjiang, Tibet and the democratic status of Hong Kong.
Fourth, theater preponderance with the US as a "resident power", insisting that it is the first among equals, not over Southeast Asia per se, but the South and East China Sea.
Fifth, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense placed by the US in Seoul or its allies, which will allow the US to ostensibly detect the full spectrum of radar capacity and missile launch sites of the whole of China.
