On the one hand, the joint exercise reflects where Andhika’s and by association, the TNI’s, leaning is in the ongoing hegemonic contest between the US and China. Although Indonesia’s official stance is neutrality or nonalignment, it has never kept equal distance, leaning towards one or the other superpower depending on its national interests. Indonesia may be economically closer to China today, but when it comes to security, it is decidedly moving closer to the US, thanks to Andhika.

While this American bias may also hold true for all past TNI commanders, as the country’s armed forces have been historically closer to the US because of the weapons system they use and their training, expanding the annual Garuda Shield in the current geopolitical climate sends the clearest message of Andhika’s preference to both Washington and Beijing.

In the past, Garuda Shield has always fallen under the TNI Army chief of staff. Andhika raised eyebrows in thisat capacity last year, when he organized the largest-ever joint exercise since the program was launched in 2009, involving a total of 6,000 American and Indonesian troops.

Andhika was appointed as the TNI commander in November 2021, but rather than leaving the annual exercise to his successor Gen. Dudung Abdurachman, he took over Garuda Shield and then expanded it, inviting 12 additional countries, mostly regional allies of the US. Conspicuously missing is China, though apparently it declined Indonesia’s invitation.

This has prompted speculation that Andhika, who harbors presidential ambition, is using every means at his disposal to elevate his public profile, including taking personal command of Garuda Shield. At a time when China’s geopolitical ambition and threat looms large over the South China Sea, it may not be so bad to be seen as pro-US, contravening Indonesia’s nonaligned foreign policy.

As the latest entry among the presidential hopefuls, Andhika is considered a dark horse in the 2024 race and has a relatively low electability. Opinion polls put Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a retired retired general and two-time presidential runner-up, as among the voter favorites.

Andhika has only a few months left to use the TNI’s top job to build his presidential credentials. He will turn 58 in December, the military’s mandatory retirement age, so he will have to leave the post unless President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo makes an unprecedented move to retain him as the TNI commander by extending his military service.

What’s more

The National Democratic Party (NasDem) has already named him as one of three potential nominees. Some voters favor presidential candidates with strong military backgrounds in the tradition of Soeharto (1966-1998) and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004-2014). But if Prabowo decides to run again, which is now likely, these voters will likely give their ballots to him rather than the untested Andhika.

Interestingly, Super Garuda Shield commenced just a few days after President Jokowi met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. It is not clear whether Xi raised the joint military exercise during their meeting, but China has shown its displeasure in the past over the Indonesia-US military exercise. In its defense, Indonesia has said it holds military exercises with many countries, including China, to build trust.

Some legislators have questioned why Super Garuda Shield was not held in the Natuna Sea, Indonesia’s marine territory that abuts the southwestern border of the South China Sea. It has long been the site of friction between the Indonesian Navy and Chinese fishing boats and coast guard vessels. China has made no claim over the Natuna Sea, but insists it is part of its traditional fishing ground.

The TNI apparently considered this, but wisely decided against the idea to avoid unnecessarily provoking Beijing’s ire, and instead decided to hold the joint military exercise in Sumatra and Kalimantan.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access our latest edition to read the articles listed below:

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1. Police general named murder suspect as institution seeks to regain public trust
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2. PLN pushes for an entity to collect coal levies as supply recedes
3. Air travel, online ride fare increases, push up inflation
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