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How Anies and Prabowo could divide their voters
Outcomes of the 2017 and 2019 elections indicate that the voting blocs of Anies and Prabowo are strongly correlated, down to the size and spatial distribution of their respective voters.
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Energetic -- Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto (center) attends the campaign event of Jakarta gubernatorial candidate pair Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno at Banteng Square, Central Jakarta, on Jan.5, 2017. (Antara/M.Agung Rajasa)
Anies Baswedan has just ended his first term as Jakarta governor. Rather than seeking reelection, he aspires to contest the presidency in February 2024. By declaring him its presidential candidate, the NasDem Party paves the way for Anies to fulfill his ambitions to succeed President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
However, NasDem would need a coalition to make Anies eligible to contest, which is why the two are courting the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) to round up the required seats. The Democratic Party has welcomed the approach and apparently proposed Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) as running mate in return.
NasDem’s declaration of Anies’ candidacy follows an official announcement by the Gerindra Party for its chairman, Prabowo Subianto, to run for president for the third time in a row.
Akin to NasDem’s situation, Gerindra must form a coalition to formally enter the race. In this regard, Prabowo seems to have heeded Jokowi’s suggestion and learned from the two races that he lost, that he would need support from Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) followers to cross the finish line first.
Prabowo has engaged with the National Awakening Party (PKB), the de facto political vehicle of the NU. The overture has been welcomed by the PKB’s chair, Muhaimin Iskandar.
Given the current political landscape, there are potentially two more sets of candidates that could join the race. One by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the other by the alliance of the Golkar Party, National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP). These two camps have yet to announce their candidates.
Regardless, one could examine the past electoral performances of Anies and Prabowo to see where their constituency could come from. To allow for a comparison, the presidential election in Jakarta in 2014 and 2019, where Prabowo was a candidate, and the two-round gubernatorial election in the city in 2017, where Anies ran, offer valuable insights.
