Myanmar has long experienced “political dialogues” where the military remained above the law, deploying divide-and-conquer tactics, breaking ceasefires and promises, and inciting further conflicts.
pril 24 marks two years since the ASEAN five-point consensus (FPC) was issued by the ASEAN leaders following their meeting with Myanmar junta’s chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. Two years on, none of the points in the agreement have been implemented. The leaders themselves admit there is little progress on the implementation of the FPC.
The State Administration Council (SAC) of Myanmar has blatantly ignored the FPC. A clear example being the execution of political prisoners not long after Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, the ASEAN chair that year, appealed to the SAC.
Is the FPC failing? Yes, definitely, and everyone else is too, as the crisis on the ground continues to intensify. Myanmar ranks among the countries with the most intense levels of violence and conflict deaths, next to Ukraine, and humanitarian access remains restrictive.
In fairness to ASEAN, its FPC was the only thing on the table, until the United Nations Security Council adopted its first-ever resolution on Myanmar in December after more than 70 years. Both documents remain toothless as they lack punitive measures.
Having hosted the ASEAN Leaders’ meeting with the junta’s chief and brokered the FPC, Indonesia will continue to stick with the FPC, regardless of strong calls to replace it with a new plan.
While it will not be replaced, the FPC can be reframed. An opportunity lies within the ASEAN Leaders’ review document issued last November that calls for the development of an implementation plan. Indonesia as chair this year bears the responsibility for initiating the development of such a plan, which suggests exploring other approaches.
The runway for Indonesia is very short. Within this year, there will be two ASEAN summits, in May and September, with the first coming in about a month. The approach by Indonesia as chair of ASEAN has raised serious alarm.
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