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Choosing the right running mate for the 2024 presidential election
Identity-based variables have enabled the success of many candidates in the new era of digital politics and populism.
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Last but not least: Incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo (second right) and his running mate Ma’ruf Amin (second left) greet their contenders Prabowo Subianto (third left) and Sandiaga Uno after their fifth and last presidential election debate in Jakarta on April 13, 2019. (TJPImages/Dhoni Setiawan)
The meteoric rise of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo back in 2014, which continued in 2019, had placed him as the top candidate in everybody’s book. One famous quote that circulated widely among experts in 2019 boldly proclaimed, “Jokowi will win the race, even if he is paired with sandals.”
Another notable example of such overconfidence can be seen in the second candidacy of the sixth president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. He impressed observers by choosing a non-party member and less popular economist, Boediono, as his vice president.
However, it seems unlikely that we will witness such poised candidates and their political machines in the upcoming 2024 election.
The current political landscape presents a stark contrast for two primary reasons. First, there is no political figure with dramatic, influential popularity as Jokowi had in his two races. Three names that appeared in many surveys put Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan in the lead by a significant margin.
Second, the grand alliance formed under Jokowi’s umbrella has complicated matters. It confuses the allies’ members because within the grand alliance there are several names of presidential hopefuls: Prabowo, Ganjar and Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto. The sharp cleavage hit when the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) declared its own member, Ganjar, as its presidential pick, while Golkar and the Gerindra Party have proposed Airlangga and Prabowo respectively.
This internal dispute within the pro-government alliance raises concerns about its ability to unify its members behind a single candidate, leading to a potentially fractured coalition.
