After failing to win sufficient political support to get his term extended beyond 2024, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is maneuvering to make sure that whoever succeeds him will protect the legacy that he has built since taking power in 2014. Without a political party as his support base, however, he may find limitations to this role as kingmaker.

Critics, including his former vice president Jusuf Kalla, have called this cawe-cawe (Javanese for meddling) unethical, saying that as President, he should stay above the fray. In his response, Jokowi justified his actions as being for the good of the nation, to ensure continuity in the national political leadership.

Jokowi is not the lame-duck president many had predicted he would become in the twilight years of his presidency. He still has some political clout to influence the outcome of the presidential and legislative elections in February next year, and he is using it.

For one, he commands the loyalty of millions of nonpartisan supporters who will give their votes to the candidate and the party of his choice. Second, he retains some control over the seven political parties that are part of his coalition government. Although political parties have the sole power to nominate the president and vice-presidential candidates, Jokowi has used his power to try to influence the choices of the parties in his coalition.

The NasDem party, a member of the coalition, learned this when it lost a strategic Cabinet seat apparently for defying the president’s wishes. Former communications and information minister Johnny G. Plate, a senior NasDem official, was named a corruption suspect last month that led to his dismissal. Jokowi is not likely to replace him with another NasDem official and rumors are now circulating that the party could lose its two remaining Cabinet seats.

Being cut out of the coalition would deprive NasDem of access to power, money and various state facilities. NasDem’s sin in Jokowi’s eyes is nominating former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, Jokowi’s political nemesis, as presidential candidate. Anies is campaigning for change, hoping to capture voters who have grown tired of Jokowi’s presidency and want a new direction for Indonesia.

Jokowi has publicly endorsed two other presumptive presidential candidates, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, while trying to undermine Anies’ electoral standing. He may have overplayed his hand though as all opinion polls put Ganjar and Prabowo as the two most popular figures, with Anies trailing in third.

Jokowi had earlier tried to get Prabowo and Ganjar to run on the same ticket, but with both men fancying their chances of winning, neither would accept the role of running mate. He has since sent conflicting messages to confuse supporters about who to support.

Both Prabowo and Ganjar have openly stated that they would protect Jokowi’s legacy if elected. This includes continuing the construction of Nusantara, an area of East Kalimantan that has been designated as Indonesia’s new capital city.

For now, Jokowi can afford to remain vague about which candidate he prefers. But closer to the election on Feb. 14, his supporters would demand a clearer direction. And if the run-up in July, an almost certain occurrence in the unlikelihood of a clear winner, pits Prabowo against Ganjar, the president will have to make a clear stand.

What’s more

The covert campaign to undermine Anies’ electoral chances continue even though he has consistently been trailing in all opinion polls. Besides the attack on NasDem, the Democratic Party is also coming under pressures to abandon its support for Anies’ nomination. NasDem needs to sustain the support of the Democratic Party and the Islamist Justice Party (PKS) to meet the threshold necessary for nominating Anies.

Just how much longer can Jokowi play the role of kingmaker?

Theoretically, his power to influence the election results will end once the nominations by political parties have closed in November. Beyond that, the elections will be entirely in the hands of the political parties. And without a political party to control, Jokowi could be completely shut out of the elections. In practice, he is still the President with much power at his disposal. He will also have full control over all the regions, since provincial governors, regency chiefs and city mayors will have to step down by September and be replaced by his appointees as caretakers until local elections take place in November next year. He will be in full control of the state apparatus – the bureaucracy, the police and the military. The law requires them to remain neutral in the elections. Can Jokowi resist the temptation to deploy them to influence the elections?

And Jokowi may just win control of the Democratic Party in time. The Supreme Court is currently hearing a petition by Gen. (ret.) Moeldoko, the chief of staff of the presidential office, who is contesting the party’s chairmanship. The party of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) is being rocked by internal power struggles, and Moeldoko, with support from disgruntled party members, has stepped in to claim the chairmanship.

Moeldoko is clearly acting on his boss’ order. Should he succeed in his campaign and the Supreme Court rules in his favor, Jokowi will have a political party to build his power base to further influence the 2024 elections and beyond. 

What we’ve heard

Speculations about the President’s involvement in the 2024 election process have been circulating for some time. On various occasions, he has given endorsements to Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto. However, sources within the Palace have claimed that Jokowi has been leaning more toward supporting Prabowo than Ganjar.

This shift in support is reportedly due to a political agreement between Ganjar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) before his nomination at Batutulis Palace in Bogor on April 21. Part of the agreement says the PDI-P would have the authority to determine the vice presidential candidate for Ganjar and Cabinet ministers if Ganjar is elected as president. "This agreement has diminished Jokowi's role in Ganjar's candidacy," said a source from Jokowi’s inner circle.

Another factor that has disappointed Jokowi, according to this source, is Megawati’s refusal to accept Jokowi’s recommendation on vice presidential candidate. Jokowi proposed Erick Thohir and Sandiaga Uno, only to receive cold shoulders from Megawati. "PDI-P considers that the two persons do not have an ideology that aligns with the party," said the source.

Jokowi's support for Prabowo is evident through the maneuvers of his children, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the mayor of Surakarta, and Kaesang Pangarep. Gibran attended a gathering of the Jokowi-Gibran Volunteers in the Central Java city Solo to support Prabowo’s nomination. Jokowi also revealed his preferred candidate during a meeting with senior officials of one of his supporting parties at the State Palace. "The party was informed because it was one of those who staunchly opposed Prabowo," said a source who knew about the meeting.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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