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Coattail voting is rational, but suppresses participation
The strong public support for parties and candidates provided by President Jokowi and his family could be attributed to logical motives.
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A local poll administrator (KPPS) moves a ballot box at the North Jakarta Elections Commission (KPU) logistics warehouse at Cempaka Putih sports hall in Jakarta on Feb. 5, 2024. (Antara/Erlangga Bregas Prakoso)
The fundamental principles of democracy are power and rule, with people at the center of power.
Meanwhile, an election is the main tool to embody the principles of democracy. Through elections people exercise their political rights to choose political leaders.
Thus, an election is an arena for people power.
However, people still depend on political leaders when making electoral decisions. People, either directly or indirectly, are mobilized by political elites for popular support, including through coattail voting.
The results of several national surveys conducted before next week’s presidential elections tend to be uniform. The majority show the strong influence of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo on the direction of public support. Political academics refer to this phenomenon as the coattail effect.
The coattail theory explains the influence of political leaders. Because of his popularity and likability, Jokowi, as well as other leaders, can attract votes for candidates or political parties that match his voter base. Particularly in Indonesia, the electoral effect of leaders not only boosts votes for political parties. The coattail effect is also implied in electoral behavior ahead of the presidential election.
The opinion polls show President Jokowi's electoral influence in at least four categories. First, the public considers the successors or supported candidates. Poltracking’s survey (April 9-15, 2023) revealed that the public (47.5 percent) would vote for a presidential candidate pair supported by President Jokowi. After the appointment of Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as vice presidential candidate to Prabowo Subianto on Nov. 13, 2023, Poltracking’s opinion research (Nov. 29-Dec. 5, 2023) found a significant increase in the electability of the Prabowo-Gibran duo to 64.2 percent on the grounds of voting based on President Jokowi's support.
