The House is still divided whether or not to use their right of inquiry, and it is now down to Megawati as the chair of the largest party in the House to make that call. The House resumes work on Monday (March 4) after a one-month recess. If the House goes ahead and finds the allegations to be true, it cannot annul the results of the Feb. 14 elections, a decision solely in the hands of the Constitutional Court. But if any crime was found to have been committed by the President, the House could start an impeachment process.

In spite of growing calls for Jokowi’s impeachment, however, Megawati has made it clear that the House inquiry should not lead to destabilizing the government or impeaching the incumbent President.

Megawati, Indonesia’s president in 2001-2004, has yet to give the formal nod to her party to propose using the House’s right of inquiry. She knows a thing or two about impeachments. As vice president in 2001, she was promoted to the nation’s top job by default after the People’s Consultative Assembly removed president Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid for financial improprieties.

It does not take that much to propose using the right of inquiry – 25 House members from more than one party – but it needs the support of more than 50 percent of House members in attendance at the plenary for it to go ahead. While getting past the first phase is easy, getting the 50 percent endorsement from the House could be a challenge.

Parties in the House are still realigning themselves following last month’s elections. The PDI-P is still the largest member of Jokowi’s eight party-coalition government, but after the elections, it will likely to start distancing itself from the President. If the House’s inquiry goes ahead, this could jeopardize its position in the coalition government. For now, Megawati has insisted that the PDI-P, which has as many as six ministers in the Jokowi cabinet, will remain in the Jokowi government until its term ends in October.

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Preliminary counts of the votes by the General Elections Commission (KPU) show Defense Minister Prabowo having an insurmountable lead with 59 percent of the national votes in the presidential election, well ahead of former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan with 24 percent, and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo with 17 percent. The KPU has until March 20 to finish the counting and announce the official results.

Much really depends on how bitter Megawati is toward Jokowi and whether she has the will and strength to fight. She must feel betrayed that the man who ran on the PDI-P presidential tickets in 2014 and 2019 had supported Prabowo from Gerindra Party rather than the PDI-P’s candidate Ganjar in this year’s presidential race. 

What’s More

Besides his open endorsement, Jokowi went all out using his power and influence to help Prabowo win the election, naturally, because 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Prabowo’s running mate, is his eldest son. Whether his actions were proper is something that the House inquiry would look into.

Both Ganjar and Anies are contesting the election results through the Elections Supervisory Body (Bawaslu), which will look into allegations of fraud, and most likely appeal all the way to the Constitutional Court, to annul the votes and to call for a new election. This will be separate from the political process through the right of inquiry in the House, which is in the hands of the political parties.

Anies and Ganjar are gathering evidence to support their claim of “structured, systematic and massive” cheating to file with Bawaslu and later with the Constitutional Court. But the House inquiry, if it goes ahead, will likely take a good look at some of the ethical breaches, some already proven and others alleged, committed by those responsible for organizing the general elections, including the KPU, Bawaslu, the Constitutional Court and the President.

Both the KPU and Constitutional Court have already been sanctioned for bending the minimum-age rule of 40 years that allowed Gibran to run in the race. Critics have said the President’s tour of the country giving out social aid packages to low income families amounted to electioneering that favored the Prabowo-Gibran ticket.

The PDI-P is still doing its calculations whether or not it has the numbers in the House to get the 50 percent endorsement to launch the inquiry. The United Development Party (PPP), which supported Ganjar, has not indicated whether it will support the inquiry, and instead the party is talking to the Prabowo camp for the possibility of joining his government.

Three parties behind Anies – the NasDem Party, the Nation Mandate Party (PKB) and the Justice Welfare Party (PKS) – have not given a clear signal on their position other than saying that they support the idea. But whether they will vote for the inquiry and later the results is still very much up in the air. They too had been invited by Prabowo to join the government.

In the next round, Jokowi still has the upper hand over Megawati. This has always been the case in their running battle, much of it fought internally behind closed doors. He is the President of the country, and Megawati is chair of the largest political party. Megawati has on several occasions described Jokowi as nothing more than “an officer” of her party to convey the message of the extent of her power over the President.

There is a remote chance that the House inquiry, if it goes ahead, will lead to Jokowi’s impeachment. But the findings of the inquiry may still embarrass the President that his interventions have tainted the credibility and integrity of the elections and undermine and haunt the legitimacy of the incoming Prabowo-Gibran administration in October.

What we’ve heard

The campaign teams of Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo have opened communication to explore the possibility of exercising the interpellation right to investigate allegations of election fraud. Several sources from Anies' team revealed that the leaders of the Coalition for Change and Anies met in the Thamrin area of Central Jakarta on Feb. 23. The meeting was attended by Surya Paloh, Salim Segaf Al-jufri, and Muhaimin Iskandar. During the meeting, it was agreed to propose an interpellation right to disclose election fraud.

Earlier, the Coalition for Change had faced uncertainty when President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo met with Surya. In that meeting, President Jokowi asked Surya to accept the election results.

The meeting of Coalition for Change leaders was then followed by a meeting of general secretaries at the NasDem Party office. "The three parties in the Coalition for Change are proposing the exercise of interpellation right," said this source.

The Coalition for Change is also lobbying the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) for support. Efforts are being made to arrange a meeting between Surya and Megawati Soekarnoputri through Guntur Soekarnoputra, Megawati's brother. The relationship between Megawati and Surya was strained when NasDem hijacked several PDI-P cadres during the first term presidency of Jokowi. "Efforts to reconcile Surya and Megawati also involve Jusuf Kalla," said this source.

In Ganjar's coalition, there was initially a discussion about joining Prabowo's coalition, as advocated by the PPP politician Sandiaga Uno. Later, this source said that there is internal discussion within the PPP, led by Romahurmuziy, to focus on the vote-counting process and ensure that the party can beat the parliamentary threshold. "Romi's stance tends to support the interpellation right, although this will still be discussed with Islamic clerics and the party's internal," said this source.

Meanwhile, the coalition supporting Prabowo is working to lobby other parties to prevent the initiation of the interpellation right on election fraud. A Gerindra Party elite admitted that they are communicating with the leaders of parties supporting Anies and Ganjar to prevent the interpellation right. An informant familiar with the lobbying efforts mentioned that Gerindra’s secretary general Sufmi Dasco Ahmad is also communicating with several party elites to prevent the realization of the interpellation right. "He is working to ensure that the interpellation right does not materialize," said this politician.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. Prabowo prepares for transition of power
2. Navigating the shadowy issues in Sirekap
3. Forming a ministry for Prabowo’s free lunch program

Business and Economy

1. Prabowo-Gibran campaign team named as SOE commissioners
2. Delay in beef import permits worries market over rising commodity prices
3. Govt to give 40-percent discount to unsubsidized fertilizer
4. Indonesia runs twin deficits in 2023 as trade weakens

    

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