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No geopolitical tension to follow Iran’s helicopter crash

Irrespective of what may emerge from the helicopter crash, there is no reason to believe that Iran will launch a powerful counterattack against Israel.

Phar Kim Beng (The Jakarta Post)
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Kuala Lumpur
Wed, May 22, 2024 Published on May. 21, 2024 Published on 2024-05-21T12:03:52+07:00

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No geopolitical tension to follow Iran’s helicopter crash People gather to mourn the death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran on May 20, 2024. (West Asia News Agency via Reuters/Majid Asgaripour)

R

egardless of the circumstances that surround the May 19 helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and other dignitaries on Sunday, the world should not necessarily expect an escalation of tensions that can lead to an immediate conflict between Iran and Israel.

Why?

While Iran and Israel finally came to blows for the first time on April 1, showcasing the temerity of Tehran at hitting back against the state-sponsored assassinations by Tel Aviv, immediate hostilities between the two rivals will not be automatic.

Nor should one assume that the two are on the brink of going at each other in the next few days. While ex-Mossad agents who have turned against Israel have affirmed, time and again, that "nothing in the Middle East" has happened without the role of the Israeli spy agency, Iran is not the Middle East. A common mistake made by many is that Iran is part of the political geography of the region.

While it is true that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been itching for a war against Iran with the help of the United States since 2014 in order to destroy the ostensible "nuclear weapons" program of Iran, one has to understand that the National Security Council team of US President Joe Biden is clearly against any further escalation of tensions.

Without the support of Washington, Israel would not have gone as far as it did, and is still doing, in Gaza since October last year, following the incursions made by Al Qasam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.

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This does not imply that the dogs of war in the war cabinet of Israel will necessarily comply with President Biden. They won't. Just look at the extent to which they have attacked Rafah in Gaza.

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