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The myth of the green energy transition
We need a sharp change in direction to fund green energy alternatives, research and development, because the way most policies are trying to direct the much-hyped energy transition is neither achievable, affordable nor realistic.
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A worker inspects a rooftop solar power system at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s Electricity Directorate General in Jakarta, in this undated file photo circa 2020. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)
D
espite the hype, the much-vaunted green energy transition away from fossil fuels isn’t happening. Achieving a meaningful shift with current policies turns out to be unaffordably costly. We need to drastically change policy direction.
Globally, we are already spending almost US$2 trillion annually to try to force an energy transition. Over the past decade, solar and wind energy use has increased to their highest-ever levels. But it hasn’t reduced fossil fuels: during the same period, we have added even more fossil fuels.
Countless studies show that when societies add more renewable energy, most of it never replaces coal, gas or oil. It simply adds to energy consumption. Recent research shows that for every six units of new green energy, less than one unit displaces any fossil fuel. Analysis in the United States shows that renewable energy subsidies simply lead to more overall energy use.
In other words, policies meant to boost green energy are leading to more emissions.
None of this should come as a surprise to any student of history. During the transition from wood to coal during the 1800s, overall wood use actually increased, even while coal took over a greater percentage of energy needs. The same thing happened when we shifted from coal to oil: By 1970, oil, coal, gas and wood all delivered more energy than ever.
Humans have an unquenchable thirst for affordable energy, which is required for every aspect of modern life. In the past half century, the energy we get from oil and coal has again doubled, hydro power has tripled and gas has quadrupled, and we have experienced an explosion in the use of nuclear, solar and wind. The whole world, including the average person, has never had more energy available.
The grand plan underpinning today’s green energy transition mostly insists that pushing heavily subsidized renewables everywhere will magically make fossil fuels go away.
