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Prabowo's bloated coalition could strain Indonesia’s future

Even with little opposition, it is crucial for citizens to stay vigilant and actively engage, ensuring governance serves the broader population, not just a privileged few.

Achmad Hanif Imaduddin (The Jakarta Post)
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Thu, September 19, 2024

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Prabowo's bloated coalition could strain Indonesia’s future Prabowo's bloated cabinet (JP/T. Sutanto)

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bloated coalition and the addition of ministers under the incoming administration of president-elect Prabowo Subianto could burden the country's fiscal framework and threaten the checks and balances mechanisms of Indonesia’s democracy.

The House of Representatives' Legislation Body (Baleg) has unanimously agreed to remove the 34-minister limit previously mandated by Law No. 39/2008 on state ministers. In the revised draft, this cap has been replaced with the clause, “in accordance with the president’s needs, considering the effectiveness of governance.”

This revision will offer greater flexibility to Prabowo in appointing ministers at his discretion. Although the exact number has not yet been disclosed, recent reports suggest that Prabowo's cabinet may comprise more than 40 ministers. If this materializes, it would mark the largest cabinet in Indonesia's history since the 1998 Reform Era.

A bloated cabinet is a logical consequence of Prabowo’s intention to bring in as many political parties as possible to his government, which will ensure his programs and policies go unopposed.

From an economic perspective, a bloated cabinet places a significant strain on the state budget. Ministry and state agency expenditures have surged by 75.21 percent, rising from Rp 684.2 trillion (US$45 billion) in 2016, to Rp 1.2 quadrillion in the 2024 budget outlook.

This increase is largely driven by the creation of new agencies, such as the Indonesian Quarantine Agency and the Nusantara Capital City (IKN) Authority, along with added program spending in various ministries. The recent establishment of the National Nutrition Agency under Presidential Regulation No. 83/2024 further signals likely budgetary expansion for 2025.

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The expansion of ministries and agencies also leads to a rise in employee-related costs. Research from the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) shows that bureaucratic expenditures have consistently increased over the past decade, never falling below 21.45 percent of the total budget. In 2025, these expenditures are projected to reach Rp 513.23 trillion, an 11.36 percent increase from the previous year.

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