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The “new Syria”: Should Turkey be repatriating Syrians?

Turkey’s refugee repatriation policy clashes with international law as Syria remains volatile and unsafe

Kamal Malhotra (The Jakarta Post)
360info/Boston, United States
Wed, January 15, 2025

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The “new Syria”: Should Turkey be repatriating Syrians? A child who fled the ongoing battles between Turkish-backed groups and Syrian Kurdish forces in the northern Aleppo province stands behind laundry hanging in the yard of a school on Jan. 5, 2025, in the northeastern city of Hasakeh, where families took refuge. (AFP/Delil Souleiman)

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s Turkey pushes forward with plans to repatriate Syrian refugees under its “temporary protection” policy, questions arise about the safety and legitimacy of returning millions of people to a country still grappling with instability and the remnants of a devastating civil war.

It has been a month since the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria on Dec. 8. The emerging interim government in Damascus is now led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a coalition of Sunni Islamist groups formerly known as the Al-Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant. The group was designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations Security Council’s Al Qaida and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Sanctions Committee in May 2014.

The leader of HTS and the new interim Syrian government, Ahmed al-Sharaa – also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani – has been listed on the UN’s Al Qaida sanctions list since July 2013, predating HTS's own designation. Al-Sharaa had ties with both ISIL and Al Qaida before severing them.

Turkey, a NATO member, also officially designates HTS a terrorist group. Despite this, HTS established a security partnership with Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT), led by Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, from 2010 until mid-2023.

On Dec. 19, 2024, Fidan told Al Jazeera that Turkey recognized the new Syrian administration as a “legitimate partner” and that the Turkish embassy in Damascus had reopened. He also called for HTS to be delisted as a terrorist organization by the international community, starting with the UN. Despite this, there is no indication that the UN Security Council will move swiftly to delist HTS, as evidenced by its Jan. 8, 2025, meeting, where a divided Council on Syria's civil war appeared united on the issue.

As the situation in Syria remains fragile, tensions continue to rise. On Dec. 19, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that although fighting had eased in many areas, civilians continued to suffer. On Dec. 29, the Syrian Resistance Movement (SRM), likely pro-Assad, declared opposition to the new government. On Jan. 4, the Iran-backed Alawite Islamic Forum (AIF) accused the HTS-led government of ignoring sectarian violence.

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Clashes between the Ankara-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have intensified, while infighting within the HTS coalition is increasing. On Jan. 7, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened “military operations” against the SDF, further exacerbating tensions. With these developments, the risk of Syria sliding into a new civil war is increasing.

HTS remains on both the UN and Turkey’s terrorist lists, making the repatriation of Syrian refugees to the "new" Syria highly problematic. Such repatriation violates the UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, particularly its principle of “non-refoulement”. This principle is binding on all states, regardless of their status as parties to the 1951 Refugee Convention.

In Dec. 2016, there were approximately 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. As of Nov. 28, 2024, the Turkish Presidency of Migration Management reports that 2.9 million Syrians were under temporary protection, with independent estimates now placing the total closer to 3.5 million.

While Turkey has shown significant generosity for more than a decade, the growing political and economic strain, alongside increasing anti-immigrant sentiments, has led public opinion to turn against Syrians. For these reasons, and to demonstrate Turkey’s shifting stance toward the "new" Syria, President Erdogan recently announced the reopening of the Yayladagi border gate in December 2024 to facilitate the safe and voluntary return of Syrians.

Erdogan maintains that Turkey is committed to facilitating the safe and voluntary return of refugees, including infrastructure development, with plans to build housing for at least one million returning Syrians.

Turkey’s Interior Minister declared that 30,663 Syrians returned home by Dec. 27, 2024, following the fall of Assad. UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) data from Jan. 3 suggests that over 115,000 Syrians have returned from countries including Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon since the regime’s collapse.

The UNHCR, which has registered 2.93 million Syrians in Turkey, has emphasized that refugees have the fundamental right to return to their country of origin at a time of their choosing, but all returns must be voluntary, dignified and safe. However, it maintains that Syria’s current situation is too unstable for a significant number of refugees to return safely and sustainably, and this is unlikely to change soon.

Turkey has not yet delisted HTS as a terrorist organization, and by encouraging the voluntary repatriation of Syrians under its “temporary protection,” it is acting contrary to both the UN’s requirements and its own HTS terrorist designation.

This could be seen as a violation of both the spirit and the letter of the UN Refugee Convention, to which Turkey is a party. However, it has a geographic limitation that restricts refugee status recognition to those fleeing Europe, as agreed by it when it signed the Convention.

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The writer is a non-resident senior fellow at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center (GDPC) and has guest lectured at the School of Interwoven Arts and Sciences (SIAS) at Krea University in India. The views expressed are personal.

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