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ASEAN has a better chance in any US-China trade war
As ASEAN has been able to overcome many issues in the past, often by learning from the best practices of the West and itself, it stands to reason that ASEAN has the diplomatic depth to handle complex issues.
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A woman walks past the ASEAN logo ahead of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' (AMM) retreat meeting at the Langkawi International Convention Centre in Malaysia's resort island of Langkawi on Jan. 17, 2025. (AFP/Mohd Rasfan)
F
ear is pervasive in the international system, given that China, Russia and the United States, all of which exist in the upper tier of the hierarchy, have shown time and again they cannot be pushed around.
In the case of China, although Panama has withdrawn from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), empirical records show that in effect it is a decision of no consequence at all. Italy, too, withdrew from the BRI under Prime Minister Lea Meloni in 2023. Yet, bilateral trade between China and Italy has improved.
Be that as it may, Panama was told, not least by US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to comply with the dictates of President Donald Trump. As a country whose leader, Manuel Noriega, was abducted from Panama by US special forces in 1989, it is understandable why Panama does not want to go head-to-head in clashing with anyone in Washington, DC. Even Beijing would be sympathetic to Panama's decision, which is why it has refrained from widely criticizing Panama's withdrawal from the BRI.
Meanwhile, the US has spread fear among Canadians as Trump is keen on annexing Canada as the 51st state of the US. Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirmed recently that Trump is serious about his annexation given the many critical minerals that Canada possesses.
Amid all that is happening, whether it is the quest for territorial advantage or tactical gains, the dawn of Trump 2.0 seems to be the most unnerving geopolitical event. Beyond threatening tariffs on the likes of Canada, Mexico and China, the US appears bent on forcing all other allies, even those across the Atlantic, to conform to the wishes of the US.
There are reasons to believe that ASEAN is not impervious to the contagion of fear that spread from North America to the rest of the world. ASEAN as a collective polity has been extremely quiet on the US and China's growing animus. In the future, ASEAN member states will feel more at ease knowing they haven't offended the two, just as they would worry about the cohesion and centrality of ASEAN being compromised.
ASEAN has seen the worst aspects of American foreign policy before, whether this be the characterization of Southeast Asia as the "second front" in the war on terror after the US invaded Iraq for the second time in 2003.
