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Prabowo’s high-stakes gamble on Indonesia’s development
There is a prevailing belief that military networks and command structures can facilitate swift problem-solving rather than relying on civic infrastructure.
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Market anxiety: A woman walks beside stock prices at the Indonesia Stock Exchange on March 18 in Jakarta. (Antara Foto/Sulthony Hasanuddin)
O
n March 18, Indonesia’s stock market plummeted by 2.5 percent in a single day, the sharpest drop of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in three years. This negative response from the market did not happen overnight. Instead, it reflected the accumulation of market anxieties due to bad policies, opaque governance, confusing government communication and worrying economic performance.
Amid critiques on President Prabowo Subianto’s governance and the reality of economic fallout, why does he appear so confident in his policies? Democratic institutional disruptions seem to be the main driver.
Numerous studies have highlighted Indonesia’s democratic decline, including those by Jaffrey and Warburton. They argue that Indonesia is now teetering between democracy and authoritarianism following the consolidation of power in the 2024 election orchestrated by former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
This trend stems from a fear of losing influence over democratic institutions. As a result, weakening these institutions has become a strategy to preserve control while claiming democracy remains intact.
The argument is supported by a 1 percentage point decline in political rights on the Freedom in the World Index 2025 and a 1 percentage point drop in government functioning on the Democracy Index 2024 report. Common tactics include excessive populist policies, the distortion of narratives through post-truth strategies and societal polarization.
This trend of democratic institutional erosion continues under Prabowo’s government. He consolidated executive and parliamentary power, as his predecessor did, to ensure smoother policy implementation and minimal opposition. Except for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, political parties that form the House of Representatives are incorporated into his grand coalition, with the consequence of a bloated cabinet.
This situation is further exacerbated by the significant presence of military personnel, both active and retired, in high-ranking civil positions. There is a prevailing belief that military networks and command structures can facilitate swift problem-solving rather than relying on civic infrastructure.
