In the halls of power, then-president Soeharto, who had ruled for three decades, found himself cornered by forces beyond his control. The Asian Financial Crisis had arrived, and with it, a brutal lesson: In times of upheaval, even the mightiest can falter when judgement fails.

Fast forward a quarter-century, and the world again finds itself on unsteady ground. The post-Cold War order has fractured; the United States-China tensions simmer; supply chains unravel; and artificial intelligence (AI) promises to rewrite the rules of economic competition.

For Indonesia and its East Asian neighbors, these challenges present both peril and possibility. The difference between navigating them successfully and succumbing to chaos is the quality of judgement exercised by those at the helm.

Judgement is not merely about decision-making; it is the cornerstone upon which businesses thrive or falter, and nations rise or decline.

Sir Andrew Likierman, a scholar and practitioner, describes judgement as a synthesis of personal qualities, relevant knowledge and experience. In an age where AI and data analytics are reshaping decision-making, human judgement remains indispensable. AI can provide analysis, but it cannot contextualize or apply moral reasoning.

From a strategic perspective, the ability to exercise sound judgement has profound implications for economic resilience. Classical economic theory often assumes rational decision-making under perfect information. However, in reality, leaders operate under conditions of uncertainty, bounded rationality and asymmetric information.

Behavioral economics further reveals that decisions are influenced not only by logic, but also by psychological biases and social dynamics. Leaders often act on intuition, heuristics and cognitive shortcuts; sometimes to their advantage, but often to their detriment. Understanding these biases and deliberately countering them with diverse perspectives and rigorous analysis is essential to good judgement.

To sharpen judgement and lead effectively through uncertainty, leaders in Indonesia and beyond must cultivate the following six elements.

First, knowledge and experience. Sound judgement is predicated on a deep understanding of one’s field and the broader economic landscape. Indonesia’s burgeoning digital economy, for instance, presents immense opportunities, but only leaders who grasp both local market dynamics and global technological shifts will be able to harness its full potential. The key is to continuously seek knowledge through mentorship, research and cross-industry collaboration.

Second, awareness. Good judgement requires acute awareness of the forces shaping one’s environment. Indonesia’s increasing role in the global supply chain means that leaders must stay attuned to geopolitical developments, such as shifts in trade agreements or tensions between superpowers.

Likewise, within organizations, leaders must be conscious of internal dynamics, including biases, power struggles and unspoken assumptions that could cloud decision-making. Behavioral economics teaches us that cognitive biases, such as groupthink and deference to authority, can impair judgement, underscoring the need for self-awareness and critical thinking.

Third, trust. The rise of misinformation has made discernment more challenging. Leaders must develop an instinct for evaluating sources of information, distinguishing between reliable data and manipulated narratives.

In Indonesia, where digital literacy varies across demographics, ensuring that both public and private sector decisions are based on trustworthy intelligence is paramount. Social capital, meaning the trust embedded in relationships, remains a critical determinant of economic success, as demonstrated by Francis Fukuyama’s work on governance and institutional strength.

Fourth, feelings and beliefs. While emotions and values play an integral role in leadership, unchecked biases can be detrimental. Effective leaders must be self-aware enough to recognize their predispositions and counteract them with diverse perspectives.

In Indonesia’s multicultural business landscape, an appreciation for differing viewpoints can mean the difference between fostering inclusion and alienating key stakeholders. The field of moral philosophy, from Aristotle’s concept of phronesis (practical wisdom) to contemporary virtue ethics, reinforces the idea that values and judgement are inseparable.

Fifth, choice. Good judgement requires exploring all available options, rather than defaulting to the most obvious or convenient one. For example, as Indonesia accelerates its transition to renewable energy, policymakers must weigh multiple strategies, such as balancing economic growth, environmental sustainability and geopolitical alliances, to craft an optimal path forward.

This aligns with Herbert Simon’s theory of satisficing, where decision-makers must balance competing objectives under constraints. Yet, history is filled with examples of ideas that initially seemed irrational but ultimately proved transformative.

The success of ride-hailing services, for instance, was dismissed as impractical in its early days, yet today, companies like Gojek and Grab dominate Southeast Asia’s transportation and fintech landscape. This underscores an important lesson: Good judgement sometimes involves embracing unconventional ideas that defy prevailing logic.

Sixth, delivery. Brilliant ideas amount to little if they cannot be executed. Implementation is where judgement is truly tested. Leaders must ensure that decisions are not just theoretically sound but also practical and adaptable.

In Indonesia’s rapidly evolving business climate, execution requires agility, strategic partnerships and a willingness to iterate when necessary. The ability to balance long-term vision with short-term pragmatism is what separates enduring leadership from transient success.

Beyond individual decision-makers, fostering a culture of good judgement must be a national and organizational priority. Indonesia in particular can strengthen its leadership capacity by investing in education that cultivates critical thinking, promoting cross-sector collaboration, strengthening institutional trust and leveraging AI without outsourcing judgement.

Indonesia stands at a pivotal moment in its economic and political trajectory. With its young population, growing middle class and digital transformation underway, the nation has the potential to emerge as a global leader.

However, this will not be determined by economic indicators alone, rather it will depend on the quality of its leadership and the collective judgement of its decision-makers. As uncertainty looms, those who refine their judgement by cultivating knowledge, awareness, trust and adaptability will be the ones who steer their organizations and nations toward a more prosperous future.

Wisdom, after all, is not just about knowing the right answers but about asking the right questions and making choices that stand the test of time.

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The writer is CEO and president director at a leading healthcare and nutritional company in Indonesia. The views expressed are personal.