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Charting a constructive path for Indonesia-China ties
As Indonesia navigates global uncertainty, pragmatic and principled engagement with China can help strengthen its future without sacrificing autonomy.
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People visit the booth of Chinese automobile manufacturer BYD during the Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) in Surabaya, East Java, on May 29, 2024. (AFP/Juni Kriswanto)
T
wenty-two hours from New York, I recently landed in Jakarta for a whirlwind three-day visit. From ministerial offices to coffee shops, from formal interviews to off-the-record conversations with government officials, business leaders and journalists, a common thread emerged everywhere I went: Indonesia is brimming with ambition, but carrying a quiet, persistent worry.
The ambition is unmistakable. Officials speak of unlocking 8 percent growth, building industrial strength and lifting millions into the middle class. Business leaders are eager for capital, technology and new markets. Journalists capture a public mood that is hopeful but cautious, a nation keenly aware of the opportunities ahead, yet attuned to the risks.
Beneath this optimism, however, runs a deeper current of concern, namely, how to seize opportunity in a world that feels increasingly unstable, fragmented and protectionist? By 2025, regional conflicts, rising trade barriers and the retreat of globalization have cast long shadows over the international system, reshaping the environment in which Indonesia must navigate.
At this crossroads, no relationship demands more careful calibration, or offers greater potential, than Indonesia’s evolving ties with China.
The global turbulence Indonesians spoke of is no longer a distant drama. Following the 32 percent tariffs slapped by the US on Indonesia’s US$26 billion in exports in 2024, market access is narrowing, supply chains are fragmenting and the investment environment looks less encouraging.
The question is not whether Indonesia must broaden its partnerships, but how and with whom. In this shifting environment, deepening economic engagement with a range of partners is vital.
Yet among these, China stands out, not as a political choice, but as an economic reality. Over the years, China has remained a stable source of trade and investment at a time when others are turning inward. For Indonesia, which must finance its future growth and industrial transformation, pragmatic engagement with China is a necessity, not a luxury.
