The operation killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami and nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi, targeting facilities like Natanz and Parchin while hitting Tehran’s residential areas, including Ali Shamkhani’s residence. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed “severe punishment,” signaling retaliation via missiles, drones or proxies like Hezbollah. Iran's health ministry reported Monday at least 224 people killed and more than 1,200 wounded in Israeli attacks since June 13.

This escalation builds on Israel’s campaign to cripple Iran’s air capabilities, from 2018 strikes on Iranian air defenses in Syria to October 2024 attacks on Iran’s air bases, which gutted its Soviet-era fleet. 

The recent strikes risk igniting a regional war, a black swan event, unpredictable, rare and poised to unleash catastrophic disruptions to global trade and connectivity, strained by United States tariffs under President Donald Trump’s erratic leadership, with soaring oil prices threatening the Asia-Pacific.

Israel’s strategy of degrading Iran’s air defenses, from 2018’s destruction of Syrian-based systems to 2024’s obliteration of Iran’s jets and radars, ensures aerial supremacy, a tactic refined in today’s strikes. 

By hitting Natanz, Parchin and Arak, Israel aims to stall Iran’s nuclear program, while assassinations disrupt IRGC operations across Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Strikes on Tehran’s neighborhoods expose Iran’s defensive frailties, but civilian casualties and a media blackout risk galvanizing retaliation.