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View all search resultsThe volatility of a 'multiplex' world and the structural dangers of a global order
If the world order is indeed akin to a multiplex, then Indonesia needs to adopt compartmentalization as our foreign policy stance.
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Foreign Minister Sugiono delivers his annual policy address on Jan. 14, 2026, at the Foreign Ministry in Central Jakarta. (AFP/Bay Ismoyo)
I
n his annual policy address on Jan. 14, Foreign Minister Sugiono offered a striking metaphor for our geopolitical reality. He described the 2026 landscape not merely as multipolar but as a “multiplex" world order. This concept, introduced by scholar Amitav Acharya, describes a world where diverse interests, dominant players and overlapping rules coexist, like different movies playing in a theater complex with multiple screens.
This diagnosis is intellectually fashionable: modern, adaptable and sophisticated. But the multiplex world is not just a complex theater; it is a chaotic trap.
If this is indeed the framework guiding the Foreign Ministry, or “Pejambon”, after the road where it is situated, we must urgently confront the terrifying problem of stability that lies beneath this cinematic analogy, particularly when the man running the biggest projector in the building is United States President Donald Trump.
The fundamental allure of the multiplex label is that it moves us beyond the rigid blocs of the Cold War. It implies a democratization of choice: We can watch whatever movie we want. But this freedom is an illusion. The defining characteristic of the 2026 multiplex is not variety but volatility.
Minister Sugiono warned of a gray zone where international law is selectively applied. This is the direct result of a system where the US, under President Trump, has fully embraced “flexible realism”. This brand of foreign policy abandons the pretense of upholding the liberal international order in favor of bilateral deals that are strictly transactional. Trump’s flexible realism does not care about the rules of the cinema. It cares about ticket sales: trade surpluses, defense spending and loyalty tests.
This creates an acute dilemma for Indonesia: How do we screen the “China movie” without antagonizing the American manager?
The “China movie” is currently the blockbuster of our region, featuring the Belt and Road Initiative, investment in downstream industries and digital infrastructure. It is a movie that Indonesia must be part of for our economic survival. We might even want to dabble in “indie movies” with partners like Iran, exploring energy cooperation or solidarity in the Global South. In a true multiplex, we could buy tickets to all three.
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