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View all search resultsAnalysis: Getting old before getting rich: Indonesia’s marriage dilemma
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“When will you get married?”
It is one of the most common, and often intrusive questions at family gatherings in Indonesia. Ironically, it is directed at the very generation that now dominates the country’s demographic structure: young people. As marriage is increasingly delayed, this cohort reflects broader structural and economic shifts reshaping Indonesian society. Declining marriage rates have been followed by falling fertility and birth rates, raising a deeper concern that Indonesia may enter an era of population aging sooner than expected.
The paradox is clear. Indonesia is undergoing a demographic transition more typical of developed economies, without having achieved comparable income levels or institutional readiness, or what economists describe as a “getting old before getting rich” scenario. What kind of demographic future, then, is the country heading toward?
Over the past decade, marriage rates in Indonesia have declined steadily, falling from around 2.1 million marriages in the mid-2010s to roughly 1.4 million in 2024. While the decline became more pronounced after 2019, the trend was already underway well before the COVID-19 pandemic, which largely acted as an accelerator rather than a trigger. At the same time, the average age at first marriage has risen for both men and women. These changes matter well beyond family formation.
Shifting marriage patterns are now translating into measurable changes in fertility dynamics and population structure. Census data show that the total fertility rate has declined sharply over the past five decades, from 5.6 children per woman in the early 1970s to around 2.1 in 2023, close to replacement level.
This sustained decline implies slower cohort replacement and weaker growth among younger age groups. The demographic impact is increasingly visible in Indonesia’s population pyramid, which is gradually narrowing at the base while expanding at older age brackets. Data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) indicate that the elderly population increased by around four percentage points over the past decade, pushing the share of those aged 60 and above to approximately 12 percent in 2024.
A population is generally considered “aging” once the share of those aged 60 and above exceeds 10 percent. Indonesia crossed this threshold roughly two years ago, placing it firmly on an aging trajectory even as its demographic dividend remains incomplete.
