Bridging the massive gap between current conditions and his grand ambitions requires more than populist rhetoric; it demands a rigorous policy recalibration. As The Jakarta Post warned on Jan. 14, 2026: "Without a massive increase in investment, our economy will diverge further from the RPJMN road map [...] Addressing these basics, rather than setting lofty targets, is the only path to strong growth."

More worrying than the headline figures is the structural pattern beneath them. Indonesia continues to endure what economists call jobless growth—an economic expansion that fails to generate sufficient, high-quality employment. While the post-pandemic rebound delivered positive data, it has not translated into broad-based job creation, particularly within the formal sector. The primary risk today is not recession, but stagnation: a trajectory that looks stable on paper yet feels fragile in reality.

The nation’s growth pattern remains stubbornly stagnant. The manufacturing sector remains the primary contributor to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 19.1 percent, followed by trade (13.2 percent), agriculture (13.1 percent), construction (9.8 percent), mining (8.8 percent) and transportation (6.2 percent). Together, these six pillars account for roughly 70 percent of the economy.

However, the two sectors that historically absorbed the most labor, agriculture and manufacturing, have gradually lost their dynamism. This weakening labor absorption capacity is the beating heart of the jobless growth phenomenon.

On the expenditure side, Indonesia remains heavily tethered to household consumption, which drove roughly 54 percent of fourth-quarter GDP. This is followed by investment at 30 percent and government expenditure at 10 percent. This structure underscores a persistent reality: Indonesia’s economic engine is fueled by spending rather than production.

While domestic demand provides a buffer during global uncertainty, an excessive reliance on consumption signals a limited deepening of productive capacity. Investment, although sizable, has not yet reached the scale or quality required to generate sustained productivity gains and high-value employment. Meanwhile, modest government spending constrains the state’s ability to play a countercyclical role during inevitable slowdowns.