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Strikes without shield: Indonesia cannot mediate what it cannot survive

Diplomatic capital may be Indonesia’s greatest asset, but in a Middle East redefined by missile exchanges and succession crises, Jakarta is discovering that moral authority cannot stop a warhead it has no defense against.

Hree P. Samudra (The Jakarta Post)
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New York, United States
Tue, March 3, 2026 Published on Mar. 2, 2026 Published on 2026-03-02T09:34:30+07:00

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An intercepted projectile falls into the sea on March 1, 2026, near Dubai's Palm Jumeirah archipelago. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, killing Iran's supreme leader and top military leaders, prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel, and US bases across the Gulf. An intercepted projectile falls into the sea on March 1, 2026, near Dubai's Palm Jumeirah archipelago. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, killing Iran's supreme leader and top military leaders, prompting authorities to retaliate with strikes on Israel, and US bases across the Gulf. (AFP/Fadel Senna)

H

ours after the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury last Saturday, Iran fired missiles at every Gulf Arab state hosting US forces, claiming several lives and injuring many others. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits, was declared effectively closed by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

Within 12 hours of the first US bomb falling on Tehran, what had begun as a bilateral confrontation had become a region-wide missile exchange, one that reached countries where more than half a million Indonesian citizens live and work.

Jakarta's response arrived later that evening. The Foreign Ministry expressed deep regret, urged maximum restraint, and announced that President Prabowo Subianto was "willing to travel to Tehran to conduct mediation".

By the time the statement was published, however, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was dead, killed in an Israeli airstrike. Iranian state media confirmed the death shortly thereafter. Tehran plunged into a succession crisis, and while Iran's constitution does provide for an interim leadership council, no figure in Tehran at this moment commands the political standing to negotiate with a foreign mediator. The offer was principled, yet it was instantly obsolete.

The chasm between intention and reality runs deeper than one statement. Indonesia signed the Board of Peace (BoP) charter on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2026, joining the body established under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 to oversee Gaza's reconstruction.

Prabowo framed it as a continuation of the Bandung Principles, of sovereignty, noninterference and peaceful settlement of disputes, deliberately casting the scope wider than Gaza by invoking "regional stability" and the principle’s broader mandate.

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That ambiguity was strategic at the time; it gave Jakarta diplomatic flexibility. After Feb. 28, it became a liability. A charter broad enough to cover "regional stability" is broad enough to drag Indonesia into a conflict it has no capacity to manage.

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