This relentless cycle demands a re-evaluation of both conflict-resolution strategies and development policies in Papua. The prevailing assumption holds that violence stems from poverty, leading to a development policy that is heavily economic in orientation.

Yet, research by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals a far more nuanced relationship. This piece examines the controversies surrounding that developmental logic and the new threats now shrouding Papua’s future.

The government’s assumption that violence is primarily a product of underdevelopment is an oversimplification. In reality, three competing paradigms are at play: first, that violence is caused by economic backwardness (the framework most commonly relied upon by the government); second, that violence itself obstructs economic development; and third, that economic development actually generates violence.

The case of Boven Digoel regency illustrates how violence threatens economic progress. After a Smart Air aircraft carrying basic supplies was allegedly shot down by the OPM on Feb. 11, killing two pilots, pilot associations staged protests over safety concerns, and several airlines suspended their routes. Ultimately, ordinary people suffer. The provision of essential goods and public services has been further disrupted by the evacuation of teachers and medical workers from conflict zones.

Conversely, the frequent violence in the Freeport operational area in Mimika regency exemplifies the third paradigm: conflict generated by economic development itself. The distribution of benefits from the mining sector reveals a glaring imbalance among corporations, the state and local communities. This contested relationship is supported by CSIS research in the Jayawijaya and Mimika regencies.

The findings reveal a stark paradox. Despite significant economic interventions through Special Autonomy (Otsus) and the formation of new autonomous regions, these policies have failed to effectively address the root causes of violence or substantially improve the welfare of indigenous Papuans. In some cases, development policy has deepened existing inequalities and contributed directly to emerging conflicts.