The timing was not coincidental. The Military Police subsequently detained four of the Indonesian Military’s (TNI) Strategic Intelligence Agency (BAIS) personnel in connection with the attack, and an independent fact finding team identified 16 individuals they believe were involved. The case has since been transferred to military jurisdiction.

Less than three weeks later, academics and analysts gathered in Jakarta for an event pointedly titled “Before the Observers Are Disciplined.” The name turned out to be prophetic. Political scientist and polling pioneer Saiful Mujani was reported to police on allegations of sedition for saying at that gathering that formal impeachment was unlikely to work and that Indonesians should instead “consolidate to bring Prabowo down.”

Days later, constitutional law scholar Feri Amsari, another participant of the event, was also reported for publicly challenging the government’s food self-sufficiency claims, citing rice import data he argued flatly contradicted official figures.

Whatever one thinks of their choice of words, both Saiful and Feri were expressing political and analytical opinions of a kind voiced in democracies the world over. The appropriate answer should be a counterargument, not a police report.

The complaints against them were filed by pro-government groups, but the clip of Saiful’s remarks was first amplified by a presidential staff advisor who branded him a “provocateur in academic clothing”; a reminder that informal state networks can drive a chilling effect without leaving obvious fingerprints.

Meanwhile, Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya, a military officer holding a civilian post, itself a point of ongoing democratic concern, took to the Presidential Palace steps to warn of an “inflation of observers.”