Civil society groups say the seawall could prompt more sand mining, degrade mangroves and affect the livelihoods of fishing communities. There are fears the project will worsen existing ecological destruction caused by industrialization. While desperate to avoid flooding, these groups don’t see a wall as the solution.

Indonesia is significantly affected by climate change, often in the form of severe and regular floods.

So, what is the best way to respond?

The seawall plan has been framed as a flagship economic project on Java’s north coast. It will cost at least US$80 billion and take decades to build. Construction is planned to start in September.

The seawall will be overseen by several government agencies and subject to scrutiny from the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). Whether such scrutiny will be effective is an open question.

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Funding for the massive cost is slated to come from provincial and national budgets, along with public-private partnerships with countries such as the United Arab Emirates. There are concerns about who will foot the large bill for long-term maintenance of the seawall.

Indonesia has a long history of managing floods by building infrastructure such as canals and dikes, reclaiming land and deepening or straightening rivers. But such solutions often either exacerbate the problem or are only a stopgap measure before sea level rise overtakes subsiding land.

Media and academics are pressing for a different strategy that would include consultation with affected communities, integrated coastal management, wastewater upgrades and river cleanup, so the future lagoon does not become a low-oxygen moat behind a wall.

For Australia, Indonesia’s closest neighbor and a key strategic and economic partner, how Jakarta manages this project will shape regional security. Historically, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has closely collaborated with its Indonesian counterpart, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), on infrastructure such as water projects.

Failing to consult properly with Indonesian stakeholders could lead to political fallout, while inaction might lead to food insecurity as vast tracts of rice fields become saline. Both create a less stable Indonesia, something Canberra wants to avoid.

On the north coast of Java, the world’s most populous island and the country’s economic heart, flood risk is driven by land subsidence and land use.

Subsidence, referring to the gradual sinking of land, and related coastal erosion are common on Java. They are caused by a range of factors, such as excessive and unregulated groundwater extraction, building load, mangrove deforestation, seawall construction and increases in soil moisture.

In our recent research, we show that the way different levels of government communicate these problems change how people understand these messages, potentially undermining imperatives to reduce groundwater extraction.

Recent modeling suggests offshore structures can reduce storm surge heights in some locations, but outcomes vary by location and the local underwater environment. These types of coastal adaptation projects have historically been sites of political argument and corruption.

Our ongoing work with Indonesian researchers in three villages in Kendal, Central Java, shows how flood defenses such as seawalls, raised roads and home protection grants can partially address the risk but not solve it.

Grants of around A$2,000 ($1,418) have helped some households lift floors, walls and roofs but rarely cover the full cost. Poorer families sometimes declined these grants once they understood the cofinancing burden.

Meanwhile, raised roads and flood walls channeled water into nearby low-lying homes. This reshaped livelihoods, neighborhood interactions and community dynamics. We also recorded saltwater intruding onto productive land that had previously avoided regular tides.

In short, works that do not also address the causes of subsidence can redistribute harm and entrench inequity. They can also affect one of the stated reasons for building the Giant Sea Wall: addressing Indonesia’s food security.

The best question is not “wall or no wall” but whether it is possible to construct a massive seawall that works as intended. If it is possible to regulate and enforce groundwater extraction, clean rivers and design coastal works with local communities, the unintended consequences of flood infrastructure can be minimized.

With those reforms, Java’s Giant Sea Wall could be a useful part of a wider adaptation portfolio. Without them, it risks becoming an expensive folly.

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Zane Goebel is an associate professor of Indonesian studies at The University of Queensland, where Sonia Roitman is an associate professor of development planning. Udiana Dewi is a research fellow at The University of Sydney. This article is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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