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Whoever wins in November, Indonesia must engage with US, diplomats say
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ndonesia must continue to closely engage with the United States regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November, diplomats and foreign policy experts have said, as Indonesia seeks to rekindle its partnership with a superpower largely preoccupied with its rivalry with China.
With the race to the White House picking up, Indonesia is facing two distinct possibilities: preparing for a change in US leadership or bracing for more of the same.
Americans are expected to choose between President Donald Trump and his opponent Joe Biden on Nov. 3. Either way, experts agreed during a virtual discussion this week that the results of the election would affect Indonesia’s foreign policy stance towards the US, as well as Washington’s relations in the Asia-Pacific region.
Former Indonesian ambassador to the US Dino Patti Djalal was confident that Trump would lose as a result of unanticipated job losses and other challenges wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Throughout history, US voters are known for being punitive toward leaders who govern when the state is in distress,” he said on Tuesday.
Indonesia must start figuring out a partnership strategy beyond trade and investment to anticipate inevitable changes post-election, especially if Biden wins, said the founder of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI).
“If elected, Biden will be the most ‘foreign policy prepared’ president. But how bold and different his foreign policy will be depending on whether the Democrats can rule the Senate,” Dino said of the former member of the US Senate foreign affairs committee.
Foreign Ministry director for American (I) affairs Zelda Kartika said that if Biden was elected, more unconventional security issues could be raised in discussions, such as human rights, democracy, immigration, the environment and labor concerns. This was in contrast to Trump’s foreign policy, she said, which focused more on trade, investment and sanctioning.
Landry Haryo Subianto, chief country representative of the US-ASEAN Business Council in Jakarta, said Indonesia had to anticipate shared concerns with the US in the coming years, including on issues such as climate change, health, technology and trade and investment.
Landry added that the US-China trade war under a Biden presidency would likely be more sophisticated and involve less censure of China.
Weary of its hefty trade deficit with Beijing and alleging unfair trade practices, Washington started a trade war in March 2018 that quickly escalated as tit-for-tat punitive duties mounted on hundreds of billions of dollars of bilateral trade. The shocks of this dispute have disrupted trade globally.
Trump’s pursuit of the trade war has caused other countries to position themselves to benefit from the fallout between the two superpowers, and Indonesia is no exception.
The government has formed a special task force to attract companies leaving China. In June, seven foreign businesses, including US-based light product maker Alpan, confirmed plans to relocate to Indonesia.
Foreign Ministry head of policy analysis and development Siswo Pramono said Indonesia had to take the opportunity to persuade as many US companies as possible that were seeking to move out of China and relocate their production facilities to Southeast Asian countries to come to Indonesia.
He said the trade war would continue regardless of who was elected US president later this year.
“Biden wants to boost domestic manufacturing while taking a hard line on China’s alleged steel dumping and intellectual property infringement. Meanwhile, Trump will continue to attack China, encourage US companies to avoid offshoring and slap tariffs on Chinese goods,” he said.
Even though Trump has retreated from global forums, introduced policies that many nations, including US allies, consider unfavorable, and has sought to dismantle former president Barack Obama’s achievements, foreign views of the US remain generally favorable, according to a Pew Research poll released in January.
“Despite low confidence in Trump, there are still high expectations for US global leadership among the international community, including from Asia-Pacific,” said Syafiah Muhibat, head researcher on international relations at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Many US voters still feel represented by Trump despite the lack of trust in him globally, said international law expert Hikmahanto Juwana of the University of Indonesia.
He said Indonesia should prepare for both scenarios.
“If Trump wins again, forget bilateral trade running smoothly before Trump manages to bring back US jobs. In addition, we must think about how to reduce tension in [Southeast Asia] because, under Trump, the escalated trade war might turn the region into a battleground,” he said.
Syafiah of the CSIS said the most important question was what changes either potential victor could offer to ASEAN.
“Trump is known for his ‘tit for tat’ or transactional policy, which often undermines multilateral interests. The undecided policy toward ASEAN leaves a challenge for Indonesia – that is, how to contribute in regions to uphold multilateral partnerships,” said Shafiah.
US ties with Indonesia and ASEAN have been lacking in recent years, with Washington focusing most of its resources on its rivalry with Beijing. The US ambassadorships to Indonesia and ASEAN are currently vacant, with interim officials without much sway in policymaking left in charge.
