Banten Governor Wahidin Halim’s term will expire in May 2022 and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan’s will end on Oct. 16, 2022. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo will follow suit in 2023. As for Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, his post will remain intact because of the special status awarded to the province.

Anies, Ridwan, Khofifah and Ganjar have been touted as potential candidates for the presidency, but what can they expect if they’re not holding public office ahead of the race? The first three had hoped their reelection would provide them a platform to run for a higher office, but the political parties that control the outright majority in the House of Representatives have insisted there will be no regional elections in 2022 and 2023, as stipulated in the 2016 Regional Elections Law.

Many of Anies’ supporters suspect the parties’ recent refusal to revise the law is part of a systematic attempt to bar him from the presidential election. I disagree with them because the House passed the election bill into law in 2016, while the Jakarta election which Anies won was held in 2017.

What makes more sense is that the law was drafted with a sincere intention to better prepare for simultaneous nationwide elections in 2024. Of course, political elites had a hidden agenda, which was to prevent regional leaders from disrupting their situations, as happened with Jokowi in 2014.

Anies will officially end his term on Oct. 16, 2022, five years after he defeated then-incumbent governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama in a divisive election. Since winning the Jakarta gubernatorial post, Anies, who Jokowi dismissed as the education minister in July 2016, has emerged as a chief challenger to Jokowi.

The agreement between Jokowi and all pro-government political parties to keep the Elections Law unchanged will be devastating for 24 governors, 191 regents and 57 mayors, especially those who are bidding for a second term.

Read also: Should Indonesia have local polls in 2022? The answer could shape 2024 presidential race

There will be at least three implications of the decision. First, potential presidential aspirants may miss their chance. Second, as many as 272 regions will be led by figures who do not have popular mandates for quite a long time. Third, doubts linger over preparations for the colossal elections in 2024, when the nation will elect a president and vice president, House and Regional Representatives Council members, regional legislature members and regional leaders.

In 2022 alone, the government will have to appoint acting regional heads in 7 provinces, 76 regencies and 18 cities. I don’t know how so many officials will be selected from the civil service and police to fill the public posts.

Only the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party have insisted on revising the 2017 Elections Law so that regional elections can be held in 2022 and 2023, but their voices are negligible. In February of last year, the Constitutional Court ruled against a petition to abolish such provisions on regional elections in Law No. 10/2016 on Regional Elections, meaning there is no longer a possibility of changing the decision to delay all regional elections until 2024.

I cannot imagine how elections will run in 34 provinces, 416 regencies and 98 cities across the country that year. In 2019, when there was no regional election, the so-called fiesta of democracy was held in a hectic manner. Alleged exhaustion claimed the lives of 583 poll workers and sickened 5,175 others. 

The General Elections Commission (KPU) will hopefully come up with more advanced technology and more sophisticated management. It is certain that the 2024 elections will be much more costly, more complicated and prone to triggering conflicts and disputes.

As for Anies, he does not belong to any major political party. For support, he relies mostly on conservative and highly educated Muslims in urban areas. How can he benefit from his position as governor to boost his nationwide popularity? It is not an easy selling point because even many of his loyal supporters admit that Anies was not able to match Ahok’s achievements as Jakarta governor. Besides, Anies lacks financial support.

It is true that the Gerindra Party nominated Anies in the 2017 gubernatorial race, but 2024 will be a different story. Gerindra chairman and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto may try his luck for the third time to win the presidency. Will Prabowo pick Anies as his running mate? The possibility is there but looks slim as Anies will likely go all out for presidency.  

Read also: Prabowo, Ganjar lead again in 2024 electability polls

If I were asked what Anies should do to keep his chances alive, I would answer that he must at least lead the popular Jakarta soccer club Persija or national social organizations like the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) to keep himself in the public eye.

Now, how about Ridwan, Ganjar and Nahdlatul Ulama cadre Khofifah? Ridwan leads the largest province by voter population, but his influence is limited only to the province. Ganjar is, so far, the front runner according to surveys, but he depends on the generosity of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri. Jokowi can help Ganjar by giving him a Cabinet post.

Big party bosses may feel relieved that there will be no unexpected contenders in the 2024 presidential election. Anies declined to comment on his chances in the 2024 elections, saying he would focus on efforts to rescue Jakarta from COVID-19.

My personal suggestion to Governor Anies is that if he still wants to replace Jokowi in 2024, he needs to triple his efforts in developing Jakarta to create a memorable legacy, because he could be a nobody after October 2022.

***

The writer is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post

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