Yvette Tanamal

The Jakarta Post/Jakarta

Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto is looking increasingly likely to contest the 2024 presidential election as his party works to seal a coalition deal with the National Awakening Party (PKB), the nation’s largest Muslim-based party.

The 70-year-old politician is the only party leader with a viable chance against Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, who are still seeking official support from political parties to join the election.

With the PKB’s support, Gerindra is set to field Prabowo in 2024 — his third attempt at the presidency after losing twice to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in 2014 and 2019.

In a symbolic move signalling their alliance, Prabowo and PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar on Monday registered their parties for the 2024 general elections at the General Elections Commission (KPU).    

The two party leaders, who plan to officially announce their alliance on Aug. 13, went together to the KPU headquarters in Central Jakarta from Sunda Kelapa Mosque. At a press briefing, Prabowo noted that both Gerindra and the PKB were ready to be “good participants” in the election’s democratic process.

‘Strong signal’

Gerindra had since July sent strong signals that it would collaborate with the PKB, with the latter claiming that it had nominated Muhaimin as Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate in June. 

While the Gerindra chair had recently confirmed that the two parties were now parts of one coalition, Muhaimin noted that more time would be needed until the two could reveal how their partnership would manifest. So far, Prabowo has yet to announce who will be his running vice for 2024. 

“The signal is strong. But as with any relationship, there are [phases]. We will have to see how [this partnership] will unfold,” said Muhaimin on Monday during a press conference. “Hopefully, one of us will ask the other out soon.” 

Meanwhile, Prabowo underlined that he is set to compete with other presidential hopefuls all while maintaining good sportsmanship. 

“There will be competition for sure, but at the end of the day we are still kin,” said Prabowo, upon being asked whether he was ready to potentially compete with Ganjar and Anies, who, like Jokowi, owed his election as Jakarta governor to Prabowo’s support.

Prabowo is the most popular candidate with an electability rating of 25.3 percent, followed by Ganjar at 22 percent and Anies at 12.6 percent, according to the latest Kompas survey. 

Jokowi’s successor

While the past two presidential elections, which pitted Prabowo and Jokowi, have been described as two of the most polarizing elections in Indonesian history, Prabowo, who joined Jokowi’s Cabinet soon after the 2019 election, has portrayed himself as a political successor to his former rival.

On Friday, Prabowo reaffirmed his decision to join Jokowi’s Cabinet, saying that it was “apparently not a mistake”.

“Upon my entry to the Cabinet [...] I looked around the room and told [Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Panjaitan] that if I had won the presidency, the face of my Cabinet would have been similar to this [current one],” he said. 

“We are on the right track.”

Prabowo’s praise for Jokowi came only weeks after a group of people calling themselves the Prabowo-Jokowi joint secretariat declared their support for Prabowo and Jokowi as presidential and vice-presidential candidates in 2024.

It is unclear if political parties are keen on pairing Prabowo and Jokowi, though such a possibility is not unthinkable. The United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), comprising the political parties supporting an extension of Jokowi’s term, may give its support to the pair, with Ganjar likely running on the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) ticket and Anies likely endorsed by the Nasdem Party-led coalition.

‘Fresh political ideas’

Indonesia Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Firman Noor said the idea of Jokowi becoming Prabowo’s running mate was a “political impossibility”, but Jokowi’s support, however, would be an invaluable asset for the Gerindra leader.  

It is likely that Prabowo would pick Muhaimin as his running mate to get support from the PKB’s Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) base, according to Firman. “It is a strategic coalition which combines the nationalist and religious supporters. [...] This is a great starting asset that would prove effective if maintained well,” he told The Jakarta Post. 

But, while the blend of nationalism and religiosity has great potential, the pair still has to put in more legwork if they want to beat their main opponents – namely Ganjar and Anies – in 2024, Firman added, while referencing Prabowo’s stagnant electability. 

“The PKB is not supported by the entirety of NU– which is to say that Prabowo might have to get affiliated with a Muhammadiyah figure or perhaps with the National Mandate Party [PAN]. This would be hard because now he is partnered with the PKB,” said Firman. 

“Prabowo is also not just older in age [compared with Ganjar and Anies], but he has not been too successful at presenting fresh political ideas or solutions. This will be taken into consideration by voters.” (ahw)

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