A Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) survey released in September estimated that members of Gen-Zers and millennials, defined as those aged 17 to 39, would make up nearly 60 percent of the voters in 2024. This is likely to also include an undisclosed number of first-time voters.

The youth-focused survey also found that 59 percent of respondents use social media as their primary source of information, hence the importance of social media platforms for campaign purposes. But being lightly moderated, there has already been signs of a repeat of the last two presidential elections, where misinformation and hate speech proliferated across social media.

Analyzing social media chatter in the week of Oct. 16 to 23, right after Anies Baswedan ended his tenure as Jakarta governor, big data consultancy firm Drone Emprit found "anger" to be the most prevalent emotion in these conversations.

“Supporters and haters of Anies trade insults with each other, with identity politics being the main issue,” Drone Emprit founder Ismail Fahmi tweeted on Wednesday.

The divide goes deeper than just Anies, as Drone Emprit found that the NasDem Party-backed presidential candidate practically served as the figurehead of the opposition. Supporters of the current administration and President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo banded together with supporters of Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who is one of the three most electable prospective presidential candidates, while the opposition camp and Anies sympathizers gathered on the other side.

Blocking noise

But as loud as these conversations can be, prospective youth voters have since learned how to block the noise, especially this early into the election season.

Arina, a 22-year-old interior designer, dismissed most of the political discourse on Twitter as “just noise.”

“On Twitter, there’s always something political that pops up on my timeline. But for me, it’s easy to see if a tweet is meaningful or if it’s from one of those buzzer accounts," Arina said.

She added that with the list of presidential candidates still up in the air and the election being two years away, she saw little point in engaging in these kinds of conversations right now.

Satrio, a 26-year-old back-end web developer originally from Malang, East Java, said that with verified accounts and official news portals often giving out questionable opinions and information, he had since learned “not to take social media at face value.”

Arief Nugraha, cofounder and researcher from the Politically Aware Generation (GMP), a non-profit group dedicated to educating the younger generation on politics, warned that hate speech and misinformation on social media may push first-time voters into apathy. “These negative sentiments will, consciously or subconsciously, alter what voters think of the assailed candidates," he said.

Since this continuous mud-slinging is coming from both sides, voters would think less of all parties involved and might lead them into abstaining from politics entirely, Arief said. He warned that the effect might linger and leave permanent damage on Indonesia’s democracy.

"Identity politics result in never-ending polarization. Even though the [2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election] is long gone, the hate and dislike for Anies persists even now that he is no longer the governor," Arief said.

Anies, then backed by the Muslim-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), won a contentious election in 2017 against Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, a Christian politician who, at the time, was facing backlash from hardline Muslim groups for his blasphemous remarks against Islam.

Satrio is the prime example of this lingering polarization. “A lot of my friends want nothing to do with Anies. I’ve been to the [recently renovated] Taman Ismail Marzuki complex and I think he did a great job there, but it’s hard getting over the PKS connection," said Satrio.

Affecting change

Despite all the negativity however, Arina is still keen on making her voice heard in the 2024 presidential and legislative elections, as the passing of a sexual violence eradication bill proves that it is possible for the public to affect change.

“I was part of the protest demanding the government to pass that bill into law. [...] But it’s a two-way street, as I think [education minister Nadiem Makarim] helped force the government into taking action,” she said.