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Jokowi looks to Prabowo as potential successor
President Jokowo, who beat Prabowo twice in 2014 and 2019, said that it may now be his former rival's turn to win the presidential election.
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erindra Party (Gerindra) leader Prabowo Subianto fought to the bitter end in the last two elections, in which he was beaten, twice, by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the former Surakarta, Central Java, mayor, who he brought to Jakarta only to dash his presidential dream.
But the rivalry between the two political figures, which once divided the nation into groups of cebong (tadpoles, the pejorative term used to describe Jokowi’s supporters) and kampret (bats, the one used to describe Prabowo’s), was over as soon as Prabowo chose to join the Jokowi administration and became his defense minister.
Today, as the nation prepares for a post-Jokowi future, the former military general has gone so far as to portray himself as a successor to President Jokowi, who some construe to have given a tacit endorsement to Prabowo’s third presidential bid.
Speaking during an event marking the anniversary of the United Indonesia Party (Perindo) on Monday, Jokowi seems to have suggested that Prabowo may win the presidential election in 2024, the same year that his second and final term ends.
Read also: It's Prabowo's turn next as president, quips Jokowi
“I won the election twice. My apologies, Pak [Mr.] Prabowo. It looks as if it may be Prabowo’s turn after this,” Jokowi said with a chuckle. Prabowo then stood up from his seat in the audience, raising his hands to salute Jokowi.
Prabowo vs. Ganjar
Jokowi’s quip has elicited mixed reactions from politicians and political pundits, some of whom believe that the incumbent is still pinning his hope on Central Java Governor and fellow Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician Ganjar Pranowo to replace him come 2024, even though his presidential bid now hangs in the balance.
Gerindra has taken Jokowi’s quips in its stride, with the party’s deputy chairman, Habiburokhman, saying on Monday that “it was about time for Prabowo to win [an election]”.
Prabowo, who consistently ranks among the top most-electable candidates along with Ganjar and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, looks set to contest the 2024 presidential elections in an alliance with the National Awakening Party (PKB).
Read also: Prabowo confirms 2024 presidential bid
Political analysts, meanwhile, are of the belief that Jokowi is still banking on Ganjar to succeed him, and that his support for Prabowo only serves as a contingency plan, should Ganjar not be given a ticket to run in the 2024 presidential elections.
“Jokowi is now preparing an alternative scenario,” political-analyst Adi Prayitno proposed on Tuesday. “He might also be looking to show that he supports everybody in his inner circle, thereby diverting [the idea that] Jokowi only supports Ganjar.”
Jokowi’s preference for Ganjar, Adi went on to say, stems from the fact that the two figures share a similar voter base.
The main purpose of the statement had been to promote as many presidential candidates as possible that would be willing to continue his legacy, said political analyst Firman Noor of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). There was no indication yet that Jokowi was abandoning Ganjar for Prabowo, he added.
“While the political rivalry [between Jokowi and Prabowo] at the elite level has died down, that is far from the case at the grassroots level,” Firman said on Tuesday. “I don’t think Jokowi is ruling Ganjar out of the running just yet, since there are still many possibilities left open for Ganjar.”
Gerindra-PDI-P alliance
Jokowi’s apparent approach to Prabowo may also stem from the fact that there is no guarantee that PDI-P will grant its nomination to Ganjar.
The party’s matriarch, Megawati Soekarnoputri, may prefer her own daughter -- House Speaker Puan Maharani -- to be PDI-P’s presidential candidate over Ganjar, despite her lagging electability.
Read also: PDI-P brushes off rumors of frayed ties with Jokowi
Ganjar, meanwhile, has only received presidential backing from regional branches of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and United Development Party (PPP), which are joined under the Golkar Party (Golkar)-led United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). Golkar appears to be reluctant to declare its support for Ganjar -- at least for now.
Ganjar was later reprimanded by the PDI-P last month for saying that he would be willing to take up the call, should he be given the mandate.
Read also: PDI-P gives Ganjar slap on wrist for breaking ranks over presidential run
It is possible that Jokowi’s remark about Prabowo was a signal that the PDI-P is willing to form a coalition with Prabowo’s Gerindra, according to Ahmad Khoirul Umam of the Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs.
“Jokowi is a politician who is disciplined in his statements and would not contradict the direction of the PDIP’s policies and strategies,” Ahmad said on Tuesday. “That Jokowi has made a similar statement twice, it is likely a reflection of the PDIP's political positioning.”
