Last Friday, National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar and Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto opened the possibility of stitching a political bloc together, saying the prospect would be “a wide and huge opportunity” to build a strong big-tent alliance to contest in the 2024 general elections.

“We have spoken with the leaders of other [United Indonesia Coalition, KIB] members, all of which have welcomed [the idea] positively with open arms,” Airlangga told a press conference after he and Muhaimin had a morning stroll and breakfast meeting in Sentosa Senayan in South Jakarta.

 

‘Bridging interests’

The situation remains fluid for the coalition-building process. Golkar, the country’s second largest party, has formally formed KIB together with two smaller parties — the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).

The coalition, however, has yet to nominate a presidential candidate, sparking speculations it would end up fielding one of the front-runners in various surveys: Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan or Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto. None of them is a member of a KIB party. 

The PKB, meanwhile, has forged a partnership with the Gerindra Party, which has nominated Prabowo for the third time. It remains unclear, however, if the coalition, dubbed the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR), will not crumble. Gerindra is noncommittal to the PKB’s demand that Muhaimin be appointed as Prabowo’s running mate. 

Golkar appeared to have played its strategic role in “bridging various interests” and it could pave the way for the creation of a big tent-coalition combining the KIB and the KKIR, Trias Politika Strategis executive director Agung Baskoro said.

“The possibility of merging the Golkar-led and Gerindra-led alliance together is very much open, considering that both coalition members are supporters of President Jokowi's administration and they all now share a common interest,  which is to reject the closed-list election system,” he said.

A KIB-KKIR merger would mean that we could see a three-horse race in 2024, with the other candidates fielded by the Indonesian Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has enough legislative seats to nominate its presidential candidate, and the Coalition for Change. 

 

Opposition moves

The Airlangga-Muhaimin meeting came only a week after the NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh made a high-profile visit to Golkar’s headquarters amid rumors that President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo will remove the party from the Cabinet.

Surya and Paloh reportedly had a falling out after the latter’s party decided to nominate Anies, Jokowi’s political nemesis, as its presidential candidate, along with the only two opposition parties: the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Jokowi, however, still keeps NasDem in the Cabinet, despite pressures from his own political party, the PDI-P, that he shows NasDem the door.

The PKS has also courted Golkar for a potential alliance. It made a visit to Golkar’s headquarters on Thursday shortly after officially nominating Anies.

Ahmad Khoirul Umam, executive director of Indostrategic, said there were two playing factors that gave rise to the “growingly aggressive Golkar”: the uncertainty over the nomination of Ganjar, widely perceived as Jokowi’s preferred successor, and Anies’ ability to finally secure nomination from NasDem, the Dems and the PKS.

“In the midst of these uncertainties, the Golkar Party, which up now still seems to act as Jokowi's political pawn, is playing its role to ‘reconfigure the current coalition map,’ while waiting for the final decision of the ruling PDI-P,” Umam told The Jakarta Post.

 

Can Golkar leave Jokowi?

While Golkar is still widely seen as a Jokowi loyalist, it could still shift its allegiance, Umam said, noting that the party had been hedging its bets on all political fronts, including the political blocs supporting Prabowo and Anies.

“There are Golkar members who have shown their sympathy, though rather quietly, to Prabowo, and also Anies. There are Golkar members in the regions who have openly established the "Go-Anies" volunteer group,” Umam said.

“When Jokowi's influence weakens later at a certain point, it is not impossible that Golkar will actually prepare an exit to join the coalition that backs presidential and vice presidential candidates who have a bigger chance at winning.” (ahw)