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Prabowo strengthens US ties, but not without political cost
The US Department of Defense's joint statement from the Prabowo Subianto-Lloyd Austin meeting at the Pentagon recently underscores the cost of navigating a tense geopolitical rivalry.
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ith Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s vision of a more military-capable Indonesia seemingly dovetailing with the United States’ eagerness to forge strong alliances across the Indo-Pacific, analysts are pointing to the inevitability of cozier defense relations, albeit not without some political costs.
In the midst of a sharpening rivalry between the US and China, pragmatism has become an apparent feature among major powers operating in the region. Experts say it can be found in Washington’s strategy, which three years ago saw Prabowo being allowed back into the country after being blacklisted for two decades.
Though both sides may choose to extol the potential of this renewed rapport, recent developments suggest that the US will not lend its support freely, with China already signaling an aversion following last week’s meeting between Prabowo and his US counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Last week, Prabowo flew to Arlington, Virginia to meet with Austin at the Pentagon, where the two sides strengthened their defense cooperation amid tense geopolitical dynamics.
The visit comes after the presumptive presidential candidate for the 2024 election signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Boeing Co. for the purchase of two dozen state-of-the-art F-15EX fighter jets, as well as another deal to procure 24 Sikorsky S-70M Black Hawk helicopters from defense contractor Lockheed Martin.
During his meeting with Austin, Prabowo’s Gerindra Party issued a press release stating that the two reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining a strategic partnership by ensuring that they “capture every future opportunity and resolve challenges emerging from an ever-complicated geopolitical climate”.
Though now appearing cozy with the US, Prabowo was previously banned from entering the US for at least two decades under then-president Bill Clinton and the Barack Obama administration due to his link with past human rights abuses.
It was only in 2020 under the Donald Trump administration that Prabowo was invited to Washington, DC, after taking up his new position as defense minister.
The US’ sudden change of heart in 2020 was previously suspected by some as a strategic maneuver inspired by the fear of China possibly expanding its military influence to Indonesia, the largest country and economy in Southeast Asia.
“It was inevitable for the US to engage with Prabowo, especially in his capacity as defense minister,” Ahmad Rizky M. Umar, an international relations expert from the University of Queensland, told The Jakarta Post, on Friday.
“It is a change of the US global engagement pattern toward a more conditional one. Its support in the past used to be conditional, [but] it may have realized that China is only getting stronger now,” he explained.
Unlikely friends
Prabowo has not been Washington’s only pariah-turned-partner in recent years. In 2005, current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was banned from entering the US for “severe violations of religious freedom”, a restriction that was lifted in late 2014 when the US began strategically aligning with New Delhi to counter China’s growing influence.
But pragmatism works for Prabowo just as well, some experts have noted. Since assuming his role as defense minister, he has consistently worked with the US to strengthen Indonesia’s defenses, holding regular joint exercises and purchasing new military equipment from US suppliers.
Part of the reason for this is his US military education and contacts with the US Republican Party, Umar said. “After all, he is American-educated and trained. There is a chance that if [he assumes a bigger position in government], his foreign policy would likely align closer to the US,” he said.
In a statement to the Post on Friday, a US official said that “security cooperation is a key pillar of the US-Indonesia Strategic Partnership”, and that Washington was “proud” to be Jakarta’s largest defense partner.
No free lunch
Others believe that Washington may be banking on a Prabowo election victory next year, or that US officials are at least crunching the numbers.
“There is a high probability that the US has done its own analysis and likelihood calculation on who will run for the 2024 election,” Hikhmahanto Juwana, an international law expert from the University of Indonesia told the Post on Friday.
According to the latest survey released by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) on Wednesday, Prabowo’s strongest rival for the 2024 race is Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, whose orientation may be perceived to be more China-friendly, Hikmahanto suggested.
Meanwhile, former Jakarta governor and aspiring presidential candidate Anies Baswedan, who some believe to be an alternative partner for the US, is still struggling in opinion surveys.
But Prabowo’s recent visit to the Pentagon is not without political cost. Shortly after his meeting, the US Department of Defense released a joint statement claiming that Prabowo shared Austin’s view that China’s “expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with international law”.
The statement also claimed that the two ministers “jointly condemned violations of national sovereignty”, as such “[deploring] in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine”.
Prabowo then on Thursday released a statement rebutting the US claim, insisting that Indonesia remained a non-aligned, free and active state that maintains a good and respectful relationship with both China and Russia.
“There was no joint statement or press conference [with Austin]. I want to underscore that we have a very good relationship with China. We respect and understand each other,” he stated.
In a statement, the Chinese Embassy in Jakarta on Sunday responded that it was “opposed to a certain country’s attempts to sow discord and stir up troubles in total disregard of the well-being of the people in [the] region”.
A US official referred questions on the joint statement to the Indonesian side, saying only that both the US and Indonesia shared a common vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
“We respect Indonesia’s strong efforts to safeguard its maritime sovereignty and interests, and we encourage Indonesia to continue to support international law that protects against unlawful maritime claims by any nation,” they said.
