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View all search resultsThe new decade started on a turbulent note for the oil markets with the United States and Iran coming closest than they ever have to a direct conflict following the US killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad on Jan. 3.
Economic uncertainty and a bearish oil demand outlook continue to offset heightened geopolitical risks and keep a lid on oil prices. S&P Global Platts Analytics, however, believes that prices are far from where fundamentals suggest, weighed down by bearish sentiment around the health of the global economy.
Recent attacks on key oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia sent prices sharply higher, and while the risk to near term supply disruption may be low, the event squarely brings to the forefront the vulnerability of Middle East supply.
A disruption cutting global oil supply by more than 5 percent is not just a worst-case scenario after Saudi Arabia announced that 50 percent of its oil production capacity had gone offline after a series of drone attacks last weekend. While we are praying that a confrontation can be avoided, the disruption would be costly for Indonesia.
Oil markets are primed for a rally in the second half of this year after an easing of international trade tensions and extended production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) brightened the outlook for balances.
A deal between state-owned oil and gas firm Pertamina and its Iranian partner to develop the latter’s oil field will continue despite the United States’ recent call for a tighter agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has announced.
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