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Unity amid instability a ‘challenge’ for ASEAN in 2024
Analysts have said that factors like elections in the US and Indonesia, as well as doubts over Laos’ ability to lead consensus-driven ASEAN, would likely complicate efforts to navigate the region’s most urgent issues.
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In the ASEAN signature pose, (left to right) Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Japan's Prime Minster Fumio Kishida, Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao take a family photo during the start of the ASEAN-Japan Summit as part of the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Jakarta on Sept. 6, 2023. (AFP/Willy Kurniawan/Pool)
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s the political and security tensions of the past year persist in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, many predict that the challenge of unity could make or break ASEAN in 2024.
Analysts have said that notable factors like elections in the United States and Indonesia, as well as doubts over Laos’ ability to steward the regional bloc, would likely complicate efforts to navigate ASEAN’s most urgent issues.
After leading the region for nine months and producing some 20 outcome documents, Indonesia in September ceremonially ended its chairmanship on an optimistic note, propped by notable wins like achieving consensus to bar Myanmar from chairing in 2026 and scoring big at the landmark ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum.
Jakarta helped snap up billions of dollars worth of projects on the promise of turning Southeast Asia into an “epicentrum of growth”. However, criticism was rife that these achievements came at the cost of neglecting the region’s biggest geopolitical issues, such as the volatile US-China rivalry and tensions in disputed waters.
Vientiane, one of the bloc’s economic minnows, will have to pick up where Jakarta left off, as observers forecast choppy waters ahead.
“It’s not as if the problems of 2023 have been solved. Laos will have to deal with that and then some,” Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior analyst at Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), told The Jakarta Post.
Balancing act
