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Speculation grows over Jan. dissolution of Japan's lower house

Speculation has emerged within the Japanese government that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may dissolve the House of Representatives at the outset of the ordinary parliamentary session scheduled to begin on Jan. 23.

  (Kyodo)
Tokyo
Mon, January 12, 2026 Published on Jan. 12, 2026 Published on 2026-01-12T09:07:45+07:00

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Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (center) and other cabinet members attend a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Dec. 26, 2026. Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (center) and other cabinet members attend a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Dec. 26, 2026. (AFP/JIJI Press)

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peculation has emerged within the Japanese government that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may dissolve the House of Representatives at the outset of the ordinary parliamentary session scheduled to begin on Jan. 23, sources familiar with the matter said Saturday.

Ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) policy chief Takayuki Kobayashi, at a meeting in Shimabara, Nagasaki Prefecture, stressed that "it is a constant battlefield. It is fundamental to constantly hone ourselves so we are prepared whenever an election may come."

Some lawmakers within the LDP are calling for a dissolution while public approval ratings for the Takaichi Cabinet remain high at around 70 percent in media polls, with a party member saying, "We will proceed with preparations with an early dissolution in mind."

If the lower chamber is dissolved, official campaigning for a general election may start on either Jan. 27 or Feb. 3, with voting set for Feb. 8 or Feb. 15, respectively.

The LDP and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP, currently hold a razor-thin majority in the lower house, meaning that losing even a single seat would drop them below the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 465-member House of Representatives.

JIP co-leader Fumitake Fujita told reporters that dissolution is "the prime minister's exclusive prerogative. Being ready to fight at any time is the fate of members of the House of Representatives. We can only brace ourselves."

While saying he has not discussed the specific timing of a dissolution with the prime minister, he indicated his intention to proceed with preparations to field candidates.

The ruling bloc remains a minority in the less powerful House of Councillors.

While enjoying high public support rates, Diet affairs management by the administration of Takaichi, who became Japan's first female prime minister on Oct. 21, remains unstable.

Yoshihiko Noda, head of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, cautioned that an early dissolution of the lower house would make it difficult to pass the fiscal 2026 budget before the next fiscal year starts in April.

"Whether it is appropriate to create a political vacuum in order to seek a public mandate (for Takaichi's fiscal policies) will be rigorously questioned," Noda said.

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