If anything, a Biden presidency will signal the return of America as a “normal country”.

It will mark the return of a traditional foreign policy. This means that one of the first foreign policy moves President Biden will make is to reassure US allies, particularly in Europe, that he is no Trump, and will exercise a leadership role in America’s many alliances. In contrast with the disruptive instinct of President Trump, Biden will attempt to regain the comfort level and strategic trust of allies. The upshot is that, in contrast with the past four years, we will see a more strategically coherent western world with the US back at the core of it.

A Biden administration will be more committed to a rules-based international order (though policy contradictions will persist), and will reposition the US into its traditional role as a “champion” of democracy, human rights and international law (themes that Trump showed little interest in). That said, despite the long-standing plea of the international community, a Biden administration is not likely to push for Senate ratification of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It is important to keep in mind that a future president Biden will be forced by circumstances to focus on the herculean task of producing jobs at home. As Gordon Flake of Perth US-Asia Center argues, President Biden will inherit a “weaker and poorer” United States. More than 20 million jobs were lost this year, and there is a recession looming with unemployment reaching 14 percent, the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Like Franklin Delano Roosevelt, reversing this jobs avalanche will be the number one validation of the Biden presidency. If Biden fails this, he too might be a one-term president. Much of how Biden will engage the world will be seen from this “jobs at home” prism.

To save the US economy, Biden will likely reduce military spending, which under President Trump reached a historic height of US$725 billion in 2020. This may mean that exotic programs like the Space Force will be halted (it’s hard to justify spending billions on space warfare when 20 million Americans are out of jobs). That said, given the US threat perceptions and strategic challenges, military spending will remain high.

The Biden presidency is also expected to return US active engagement in the climate diplomacy circuit, which will be a great boost to Conference of Parties-26 in Glasgow in November 2021. A Biden administration is also expected to enhance multilateral diplomacy, be hard on Russia and China and place emphasis on arms control, which means it will right away begin negotiations on a new START Treaty with Russia (and perhaps find a way to engage China in it).

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